The Golden State Warriors (14-12) and Minnesota Timberwolves (14-12) face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Timberwolves are 3.5-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread, with the over/under set at 213.5 total points. Minnesota is a -160 favorite to win outright, while the Warriors are +135 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, December 21.
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Picks, Prediction
Spread
Even after giving up 140 points in back-to-back losses, I would still recommend a contrarian play on the Warriors at +3.5.
Moneyline
Although the moneyline is well worth a look, I'd feel better about it if the Warriors were the home team.
Over/Under
With both teams coming off games where they allowed 130 or more points, I strongly feel defense will be the focal point in this matchup. However, despite leaning to the under in this spot, I see little value at the current number after it was bet down from 216.5 to as low as 213.
My Pick: Warriors +3.5
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Odds
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 213.5 -110 / -110 | +135 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 213.5 -110 / -110 | -160 |
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves spread: Timberwolves +3.5
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves over/under: 213.5
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves moneyline: Warriors +135, Timberwolves -160
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves best bet:Warriors +3.5
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Preview
There might've been a few sleepless nights among players and coaches heading into this contest. After all, the visiting Warriors allowed 143 and 144 points in back-to-back losses, while the Timberwolves surrendered 133 points at home in a losing effort to the Knicks.
Both teams have had different starts to their campaigns. The Warriors won 12 of their first 15 games before winning just twice in their next 11, while the Timberwolves rebounded from an 8-10 start to win six of their last eight.
Despite taking different routes, these teams arrive at this matchup with identical 14-12 records. However, recent losses dominate much of the discussion around these teams, with plenty of soul-searching to go around.
Panicking is something that Warriors point guard Stephen Curry isn't ready to subscribe to at the moment.
"I don't like the 'panic' word," Curry told reporters. "I like, 'Accept where you are and try to change the momentum of the season.' Panic kind of means you don't have an answer. I think we do have answers. Obviously (we need) a sense of urgency, for sure."
I suspect it'll take much more to rattle a 16-year veteran like Curry. However, Minnesota's burgeoning superstar, Anthony Edwards, might just be starting to unravel.
"We don't have any (offensive) identity," Edwards said following their recent loss. "We know I'm going to shoot a bunch of shots. We know (Julius) Randle is going to shoot a bunch of shots. That's all we know. We don't really know anything else."
When asked what they could do to improve the offense, Edwards responded, "They're not going to like what I say, so I'm just going to keep my answers to myself."
It's clear the Timberwolves don't control games as they used to since the blockbuster trade that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks in exchange for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Keita Bates-Diop, and a future first-round pick. Minnesota dropped from 12th (50.8) in scoring inside the paint to 25th (43.8) in just one season.
The Timberwolves' problem is that they have too many empty possessions down the court. They've become overly reliant on the 3-point shot, attempting 40.1 per game, up from 32.7 in the previous campaign.
As a result, Minnesota's field goal percentage has dropped from 48.5% to 45.9%.
While it would be interesting to hear how Edwards would try to improve the offense, given the personnel on this Timberwolves roster, I'm not sure if there are any quick fixes to turn things around.
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction
Curry isn't hitting the panic button yet, but I don't think we can say the same for Edwards. Based on the Minnesota guard's comments, there seems to be a clear difference of opinion on the path to improve things. Otherwise, he'd feel more comfortable expressing his ideas.
The Timberwolves look disjointed, and it's concerning when the best player shows signs of losing his composure. Thus, I prefer to trust the more veteran Warriors' team to get a result despite both teams struggling at the moment.
Curry's comments about having a 'sense of urgency' could prove timely following back-to-back games allowing 140 or more points. According to our Action Labs database, teams in this spot are a perfect 9-0 against the spread dating back to the 2009 season.
Draymond Green is one Warriors player who will look to be a more significant contributor. The power forward played just 19 minutes in their recent blowout loss to the Grizzlies, registering four fouls while finishing without a point, rebound, or even an assist.
Green's points + assists prop is available at 12.5, a number he has exceeded in 16 of 24 games this season and 12 of his last 15. He has also exceeded this number in four of his previous five meetings against the Timberwolves.
If this becomes somewhat of a redemption game for the Warriors, it makes sense to expect the same for Green. A DraftKings same-game parlay with the Warriors at +3.5 with Green to over his points + assists prop would produce a nice return with +220 odds.
Best Bet: Warriors +3.5
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Parlay Pick
- Warriors +3.5
- Draymond Green Over 12.5 Points + Assists
Payout: +220
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Betting Trends
