The Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Miami Hurricanes in Coral Gables, FL. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Arkansas is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -200. The total is set at 155 points.
Here’s my Arkansas vs. Miami predictions and college basketball picks for December 3, 2024.
Arkansas vs Miami Odds, Spread
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 155 -110 / -110 | -200 |
| Miami (FL) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 155 -110 / -110 | +165 |
- Arkansas vs Miami spread: Arkansas -4.5
- Arkansas vs Miami over/under: 155 points
- Arkansas vs Miami moneyline: Arkansas -200, Miami +165
- Arkansas vs Miami best bet: Arkansas -4.5 (Play to -6)
My Arkansas vs Miami best bet is on the Razorbacks spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Arkansas vs Miami College Basketball Betting Preview
The best medicine for Arkansas' offensive woes might be playing this dreadful Miami defense.
Similar to Miami's clear problem, Arkansas' issue is pretty evident: It can't shoot — at all.
That's nothing new for a John Calipari-coached team, but I hoped he would turn a new leaf in Fayetteville.
That's far from the case, though. Three of the Razorbacks' five starters shoot below 33% from 3, including the well-compensated Johnell Davis, who is averaging only eight points per game.
Adou Thiero has developed into Arkansas' best player on both ends. Offensively, Thiero (19 PPG) can glide to the hoop and create mismatches with his elite athleticism and 6-foot-8 frame.
Defensively, Thiero can defend just about anybody on the floor, regardless of position. His problem is akin to the team's problem in general; he can't shoot.
The Razorbacks' defense is aggressive, forcing turnovers on 23% of their defensive possessions. The interesting thing about Arkansas' defense is opponents attempt 3s on 45% of their field goals.
Why is that the case? Illinois found an easy path to points by destroying Arkansas' pick-and-roll defense with Tomislav Ivisic's shooting. As the bigs dropped, Ivisic popped.
But Miami's starting center — Lynn Kidd — isn't a perimeter threat. So, unless the Canes opt to go super small with Brandon Johnson at the five, then I can't see Miami exploiting Arkansas' defensive weakness.
I also feel like this is a good spot to get Boogie Fland rolling. He's been productive as a freshman — averaging 13 points per game on 43% from 3 — but he needs the ball more than D.J. Wagner. He's the one player who can really open this offense.
Miami Basketball
There is pressure on both teams here.
On the one hand, Miami needs a win to salvage its season. You don't want to start stacking losses, and that's slowly becoming a trend for the Canes.
On the other, Arkansas hasn't beaten a high-major foe in the first year of the Calipari era, so both teams are desperate.
The Hurricanes' best player — Nijel Pack — missed the Charleston Southern game and seems unlikely to suit up for this one. Freshman five-star recruit Jalil Bethea slid into the lineup with Pack out, but another freshman — Austin Swartz — occupied more minutes.
Coach Jim Larranaga will likely try to play inside-out with Pack on the shelf. The veteran coach should rely on forwards Johnson and Kidd more, as Johnson scored 23 points in the Charleston Southern game, while Kidd shoots 71% from the field on the year.
The guard play is still solid, though. Seniors Jalen Blackmon and A.J. Staton-McCray will have to pick up the slack from Pack, but the problem is neither is a true floor general.
Miami needs to try limiting the hero-ball stuff, too. It's a clear problem, as Miami seems to have a ton of pressure on itself once it gets down. From a scoring perspective, Blackmon is Pack's clear replacement, as his 21 points per game helped carry Stetson to the NCAA Tournament last year.
I wonder if the legendary Larranaga decides to go younger, with Bethea, Swartz and Divine Ugochukwu instead of the older players. Something has to change.
Things are becoming dyer for Miami, as it really can't afford a fifth straight loss, and the younger players may inject much-needed energy.
With or without Pack, Miami doesn't have a scoring problem. The problem comes on the other end of the floor, where Miami ranks 355th nationally in defensive efficiency (per Bart Torvik). Opponents have made a living scoring against Miami's interior, as teams shoot 54% from 2-point range against the turnstile defense.
The Canes surrendered 77+ points in three of their last four games — all of which were losses. It's a clear correlation to Miami's terrible defense.
And while the Canes are solid offensively, they aren't elite, which a team needs to be if they don't defend.
Arkansas vs. Miami Betting Analysis
I know this spot feels like one where Miami could wake up, but I have zero faith in it turning things around.
The Canes look totally checked out, and if Pack is out, Arkansas could cause some real problems for the Canes' ball-handlers.
I told myself if this number is in the 7-9 point range, then I'd have to take Miami. The good thing is I don't have to stress about trying to find value on Miami since Arkansas is just 4.5-point favorites.
I love the road Razorbacks here to exploit the reeling Canes, which many seem to agree with — since the line opened at 3.5 and is already at 4.5.
Pick: Arkansas -4.5
