The Baylor Bears take on the Duke Blue Devils in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 2:40 p.m. ET on CBS.
Duke is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -900. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here are my Baylor vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for March 23, 2025.
Baylor vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Duke -12.5 (Play to -14)
My Baylor vs Duke best bet is on the Blue Devils spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Baylor vs Duke Odds, Spread, Pick
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -115 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | +600 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -105 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | -900 |
- Baylor vs Duke spread: Duke -12.5
- Baylor vs Duke over/under: 144.5 points
- Baylor vs Duke moneyline: Duke -900, Baylor +600
- Baylor vs Duke best bet: Duke -12.5 (Play to -14)
My Baylor vs Duke NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
The Duke Blue Devils looked like the national title favorite for a reason. They pounded poor Mount St. Mary's 93-49 in the first round.
That dominance reinforced everything I feel about Duke.
There's no beating Duke or keeping a game close if it's connecting on 3s. Over 46% of Duke's shots come from beyond the arc, and virtually nobody scored on one of the top defenses in the country this season. We're looking at the clear best team in the tournament.
I just have zero clue how Baylor scores on Duke. The Bears' offense is good, but Duke holds teams to 29% from deep, ranks 31st in free throw rate and allows 46% from 2-point range.
That's not a good formula to score on Duke. Anybody facing the Blue Devils will need an elite, elite shooting night and to make tough shots.
On the flip side, the Blue Devils are shooting 39% from deep since February 1. Everyone in Duke's lineup is a legitimate shooting threat besides Khaman Maluach.
Cooper Flagg is so dangerous because teams have to decide which path is easier — letting Flagg play one-on-one on drives or bringing a help defender off someone like Sion James, Kon Knueppel or Tyrese Proctor.
Flagg looked pretty close to 100% in the first round. He played just 22 minutes but the game was never close, so he had to just get reps.
Duke is just so much bigger and has the athleticism to contain Baylor's freshman star VJ Edgecombe. The 6-foot-7 Edgecombe didn't have a great game against Mississippi State, but nobody on the Bulldogs could match his skill set.
Duke has a few guys who can contain him — Flagg and James both excel at defending athletic wings.
Sadly for Scott Drew's squad, the Bears are shooting a dreadful 31.2% from deep in the past 14 games. Edgecombe and Robert Wright III are two freshman studs who love to drive. Neither are consistent shooters, though — Edgecombe shoots 35% from deep and Wright shoots 33%.
If you like March Madness storylines, keep an eye on Jeremy Roach. He's the sixth man for head coach Scott Drew, and he spent the last four years in Durham. After largely being recruited over, maybe Roach has a revenge game incoming.
But Baylor doesn't have size without Josh Ojianwuna. The biggest Bears starters are 6-foot-7 Norchad Omier and Edgecombe. Duke has two starters who are taller and multiple bench players who are much taller. Rebounding and scoring on the taller team sounds like a huge chore for a team that can't shoot.
This is the day's first game, so it would stink for an island game to be a blowout. Sadly, that seems like the reality.
Baylor doesn't have the right formula to beat Duke — I'm not sure anybody does. Baylor's seven-man rotation is the worst possible roster configuration for facing Duke.
