The Baylor Bears take on the St. John's Red Storm in Nassau, Bahamas, as part of the Bahamas Championship. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
The Bears are favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. The total is set at 152.5 points.
Here’s my Baylor vs. St. John's predictions and college basketball picks for November 21, 2024.
Baylor vs St. John's Prediction
My Pick: Baylor -2 (Play to -3)
My Baylor vs St. John's best bet is on the Bears spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Baylor vs St. John's Odds, Lines, Pick
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 152.5 -110 / -110 | -160 |
| St. John's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 152.5 -110 / -110 | +135 |
- Baylor vs St. John's spread: Baylor -3
- Baylor vs St. John's over/under: 152.5 points
- Baylor vs St. John's moneyline: Baylor -160, St. John's +135
- Baylor vs St. John's best bet: Baylor -2
My Baylor vs St. John's NCAAB Betting Preview
Baylor Basketball
Ever since Jerome Tang took the Kansas State job in spring of 2022, Baylor has tilted decidedly towards the offensive end. The last two seasons, Baylor has ranked second and sixth in KenPom’s offensive rankings, while the defense has landed 107th and 72nd.
This squad again has elite weapons (fifth on offense), but questions do linger offensively.
We will start with the positives: The Bears’ merry band of newcomers has made the profound impact for which many were hopeful. Veterans of the ACC, Jeremy Roach (Duke) and Norchad Omier (Miami FL) have brought exactly what was expected of them to Scott Drew’s spread attack.
Roach is a creator and a shot-maker, racking up 18 assists in four games while hitting 38% of his triples. Omier, meanwhile, is as physically menacing as ever, ranking in the top 115 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebound rate (KenPom).
He has help on the offensive glass from frontcourt mate Josh Ojianwuna, and Baylor ranks in the 91st percentile in offensive rebounds (Put Backs), per Synergy.
They have also received a surprising boost in that department from heralded freshman VJ Edgecombe. The Bahamian is an outstanding athlete, and he’s compensated for an early shooting slump by attacking the boards with reckless abandon. He has also been an elite disruptor on defense.
He may not even be the Bears’ best freshman so far, though. Drew can’t keep point guard Robert O. Wright III off the floor, a superstar table-setter who lets Roach play off the ball. He has racked up 23 assists to just seven turnovers so far – a terrific early tally for a rookie considering Baylor has played a top-60 schedule nationally.
Defensive questions still linger, though. Drew has gone to his matchup zone a ton so far this year, ranking in the 91st percentile in the country for zone usage.
That slowed the Arkansas attack on Nov. 9, but better opponents could find success against it as it shows up more and more on film.
St. John's Basketball
Rick Pitino is fully back in the spotlight in his second season at St. John’s. His first squad narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament as one of the First Four Out, but he quickly reloaded via the transfer portal.
Now he has his squad ranked 17th, per KenPom, and seemingly hurtling towards a Big Dance appearance.
Should that come to fruition, it will largely be a result of the Red Storm’s defense. Pitino expressed displeasure with last year’s squad’s lack of lateral quickness, so he mined the portal for better defenders.
In the trio of Kadary Richmond, Deivon Smith and Aaron Scott, he found them.
Richmond is a multi-positional monster. A 6-foot-6 lead guard, Richmond is strong and highly disruptive, capable of defending at least four positions.
Scott is similarly versatile as a 6-foot-7 forward, and Smith is a maniacal demon of an on-ball pest.
Add in returnees Simeon Wilcher — a burgeoning shutdown wing — and Zuby Ejiofor — an elite rim protector — and St. John’s could end up near the very top of the country’s defensive rankings.
Offensively, the Johnnies have gotten a huge lift from RJ Luis Jr.'s emergence. The former UMass transfer struggled with shin splints last year, limiting his playing time (though not his per-minute effectiveness).
This year, he has put it all together, playing like an All-American through the Red Storm’s first four contests. A skilled 6-foot-7 wing, he does it all: scores efficiently, cleans the glass, sets up teammates and terrorizes opposing offenses.
Against packed-in defenses, though, the Johnnies’ scoring attack will still be a work-in-progress. Wagner exposed that; in a 64-possession slog of a game, St. John’s managed just 66 points, registering 21 total field goals to 15 turnovers – not an ideal ratio in a buy game against an NEC foe.
Baylor vs St. John's Betting Analysis
This is a clear battle of strength-on-strength. Baylor’s prolific onslaught can rack up points against almost anyone, but St. John’s has the perimeter size and depth to make life miserable on the Bears’ bevy of guards.
The offensive rebounding of Omier, Ojianwuna and Edgecombe could be a key factor against a Johnnies squad that doesn’t always finish possessions on the boards.
Baylor’s zone could also be an antidote to St. John’s shooting-deficient offense. Perhaps role player Brady Dunlap can make an impact for the Johnnies, but Richmond, Smith and Luis are not big threats from deep.
Just like on the other end, though, the offensive glass is a pivotal battleground. Baylor must prevent Ejiofor, Luis and Richmond from getting second shot opportunities.
Situationally, this is also St. John’s first game away from home (three games at Carnesecca Arena, one at Madison Square Garden). Baylor, on the other hand, opened the season in a hostile environment in Spokane against Gonzaga and played a neutral-ish game against Arkansas in Dallas.
That could give the Bears a subtle edge here.
At the current price of Baylor -2.5, I would bet the Bears (and take them up to -3). If the market feels the same, I'd be inclined to go the other way and take St. John's if it got to St. John's +5.5 or above.
