On the precipice of March, the Big East is starting to crescendo. Unfortunately for us, that build-up will not include a compelling race for the conference title.
UConn has built a two-game lead with just four games left on its schedule. The Huskies do still have to travel to Milwaukee to battle second-place Marquette, but the Golden Eagles still have five games on their conference slate.
Sportsbooks agree that the chances of UConn blowing this lead are astronomical, with DraftKings currently listing Connecticut at -3000 to win the conference.
So, instead of keeping an eye on conference title futures, we shift our focus to the postseason, looking at which teams have a chance to make a run at a conference tournament title in New York, the goods to survive until the Final Four or even cut down the nets in April.
We start with a goodbye to the three teams without postseason dreams: Xavier, Georgetown and DePaul. It's unfair for the Musketeers to be lumped in with those other two disasters given how feisty they've been all season — currently .500 in Big East play — and how much injuries impacted the X-Men.
Let's instead turn to the teams with their eyes on a ticket to the Big Dance.
On the Outside Looking In
Villanova Wildcats
+7000 to Make the Final Four
It's certainly not advisable to place a Final Four bet on a team that has a ton of work to do to make the NCAA Tournament at all.
Maybe if you squint, there's a path for Villanova. This is a talented team that has disappointed, largely because the Wildcats' bad shooting has doomed an ugly offense.
If Villanova could win four or five of its five remaining regular-season games, enter the Big East Tournament with a bye to the quarterfinals and win two games in New York, the Wildcats probably find their way into the bracket.
But that's a monstrous "if" that would include wins far beyond what this team has shown.
It's more likely that Villanova misses consecutive NCAA Tournaments for the first time since 2003 and 2004, which were the second and third years of Jay Wright's tenure.
Maybe that would be a reminder for this program and fan base to be patient with a new coach. Though, after Wright's 16 tournament appearances, four Final Fours and two national titles, I'd think there's a little less room for patience on the Main Line.
St. John's Red Storm
+7000 to Make the Final Four
After the recent nosedive by the Johnnies, some books have taken their Final Four markets off the board, so this price DraftKings' +4000 price stands out as a little crazy.
A recent three-game skid caps a stretch in which St. John's has dropped eight of its last 10, going from 4-1 in Big East play and eyeing a mid-tier seed in March to barely alive for the postseason.
Exactly zero of Bracket Matrix's 108 aggregated bracketologists currently list the Johnnies in the field. Somehow, the vibes are even worse than the facts, with Rick Pitino using the press conference after St. John's blew a 19-point lead to Seton Hall as a free-for-all for excuses and panicking.
Chief among his complaints: his team's lack of athleticism. Who could've guessed that a team with two starters who played in the Ivy League last season and a third that followed Pitino from Iona would struggle to compete athletically in the Big East?
The good news? St. John's has three games left against Georgetown and DePaul, which better be wins, plus chances to earn resume points against Creighton and Butler.
Without a five-game winning streak and two (or three) wins at Madison Square Garden, the first year of the Pitino era likely ends in the NIT (if this dysfunctional team would even accept the invite).
Providence Friars
+200 to Make NCAA Tournament
Using Bracket Matrix's combined projections, the Friars are currently the first team out of the NCAA Tournament field.
Finding them a path to a bid is more than plausible. The Friars have one can't-lose game at Georgetown, plus two good chances at a win (home vs. Villanova, at Xavier) and two really tough ones (at Marquette, vs. UConn). If they sweep columns A and B there but lose the tough ones, you'd think a semi-final run at MSG gives them a good shot.
If they can knock off one of the giants, those odds get a lot better and even make getting in with a loss in the Big East quarterfinals plausible.
I like them at this price offered at DraftKings, largely because of the emergence of Josh Oduro as a secondary scoring option next to Devin Carter, who may be the player most likely to become a household name after the Big East Tournament.
Firmly on the Bubble
Seton Hall Pirates
+7000 to Make Final Four
It's hard to see these Pirates winning more than a game or two in March, though even reaching the Big Dance should be lauded as a major accomplishment, potentially earning Shaheen Holloway Big East Coach of the Year honors.
The Pirates were picked third-to-last in the Big East in the preseason but hold the inside track on a bye to the quarterfinals at MSG.
The remaining slate is interesting.
Trips to Creighton and UConn feel like playing with house money, where a loss won't hurt Seton Hall. Home games against Villanova and Butler are far more important, with a chance to earn a leg up on a fellow bubble-dweller.
Butler Bulldogs
+7500 to Make Final Four
You could say a lot of the same things about Butler as we did for Seton Hall. Just earning a tourney bid would be a win as Thad Matta rebuilds the program. That sentiment is made pretty clear by the Bulldogs' Final Four odds.
Bracket Matrix has Butler in the tournament playing in Dayton, yet books are offering teams like Villanova, St. John's and Providence at better odds to make a Final Four run.
The biggest cause for concern for Butler is a 7-9 Big East record with just four games left.
With a presumed win over DePaul, the committee would love to see Butler beat two of St. John's, Seton Hall and Xavier, plus make it to at least Thursday's Big East quarterfinals in Manhattan.
The Real Contenders
Creighton Bluejays
+800 to Make Final Four
Writing about the Big East this season, I've felt like a broken record talking about Creighton.
Greg McDermott's game plan is simple. Creighton shoots a ton of 3s while not allowing opponents to do the same. With the shooters he has in Omaha, that's a safe bet for success over the sample size of a full season.
In the chaos of a single-elimination tournament in March, it feels riskier.
At their best, the Bluejays can beat anyone. Ask UConn, which just got spanked as Creighton rang up 1.44 points per possession and made 14 deep balls on Tuesday night.
When Creighton goes cold, the calculus shifts. That stood out in losses to Villanova, UNLV and Colorado State, as well as the pummeling the Bluejays took in the first meeting against UConn.
Is it worth gambling that we'll see "Good Creighton" in four straight games so it can win a region and reach the Final Four? At the lower price offered by most other books — in the +600 range — I'm doubtful.
At this price, it's far more conceivable. If you're a believer in the Creighton model, you might as well also dip into its national title market, which sits at +3300 at ESPN Bet.
Marquette Golden Eagles
+550 to Make Final Four
Given the roster Shaka Smart brought back this season, I invested in plenty of Marquette futures before the season. Until recently, that seemed unwise.
Marquette, however, got hot recently, winning eight straight and re-establishing itself as the second-best team in the conference.
Saturday's shellacking at the hands of Connecticut doesn't look great, yet the Golden Eagles shot abysmally in a brutal road environment. You'd hope they put up more than a fight, though it's just one game. The rematch in Milwaukee — and potential third date at MSG — will loom large as the madness approaches.
Ultimately, this team ranks top-25 nationally on both ends of the floor and is on track for a 2-seed in the Big Dance.
Marquette's ability to reach the Final Four is far more about the Golden Eagles' ability to avoid the occasional offensive dud game than how they match up with UConn.
If I weren't already invested at preseason prices, this is one I'd be monitoring in the coming weeks.
UConn Huskies
+500 to Repeat as National Champs
UConn may be the best team in the country with eyes on the top seed in March, but there's no value in betting on it to win another national title right now. That ship sailed when the Huskies got hot last month.
I'm more interested in trying to forecast what kind of team or game can stump UConn and send it home.
We start with the obvious: If a team is going to beat UConn, it better make shots, hope the Huskies go cold, or both. Great analysis, I know.
In UConn's three losses this season, the Huskies have shot under 20% from deep twice and faced 50-plus percent long-range shooting twice.
Secondly, that team has to make life difficult for Donovan Clingan at the rim or send him to the bench with foul trouble.
It's no surprise that two of the Huskies' losses came against the elite defensive bigs in the sport in Ryan Kalkbrenner and Hunter Dickinson — plus Clingan left the third loss against Seton Hall with an injury.
Finally, the recipe to beat UConn includes multiple dynamic playmakers with the ball.
This forces Clingan to move in space and puts the impetus on Cam Spencer, a minus defender, to get stops. I think back to when Baylor head coach Scott Drew spent possession after possession forcing Drew Timme to make plays with his feet defensively in the 2021 national final.
There aren't a lot of coaches who will pick at one specific part of a game plan over and over, but coaches like Drew or Bill Self — who holds a win over UConn this season — fit the type.
My guess is that a team that can beat UConn in March would be a unit with a third perimeter option good enough to attack Spencer time after time, with a coach willing to trust that player to do so.
Steven Ashworth had his best game of the season in Creighton's win over Connecticut Tuesday night, so maybe there's something to that.
