Xavier vs. Butler Odds
| Xavier Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 +100 | 150.5 -115 / -105 | -135 |
| Butler Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -120 | 150.5 -115 / -105 | +110 |
The Big East tournament begins with a bang as the Xavier Musketeers take on the Butler Bulldogs. These two teams provided us with two action-packed matchups in the regular season, with each team taking one game.
Both teams come into this opening-round matchup with opposite momentum trends. Xavier struggled down the stretch, losing six of its last 10 games, including its final two of the year.
Meanwhile, Butler salvaged its season by snapping a five-game losing streak and winning its final two games, the last of which was against Xavier just a week ago.
Xavier Musketeers
15-16 Overall · 15-16-0 ATS
The Musketeers like to play up-tempo, but the speed at which they play at makes their excellent ball movement more of a weapon. Xavier will get everyone involved on the way to creating the highest percentage look, with 68% of its offense coming from inside the arc.
While the Musketeers haven't been particularly efficient from close range, they'll be up against Butler, which is average against 2-pointers and lacks a true rim protector.
Another critical area where the Musketeers will have the edge is on the glass. They're 63rd in offensive rebounding rate and 187th in defensive rebounding rate.
Their defensive rebounding rate may not seem like anything special, but it dramatically outranks the Bulldogs, and it could allow them to get out on the break after misses.
Butler Bulldogs
18-13 Overall · 14-16-0 ATS
Butler is a team that's thrived in the mid-range. The Bulldogs are shooting over 44% from mid-range on the season, and that area of the floor has accounted for 28% of their offense.
While they've succeeded in that area, they'll have to contend with adjustments from the Musketeers after seeing them just seven days ago.
Speaking of that matchup seven days ago, the Musketeers were fortunate to win when you analyze their overall performance.
They struggled mightily from beyond the arc, and while they made 50% of their shots from inside the arc, the gap on the scoreboard had to do with them winning in the turnover and rebound battles.
With the longer sample size favoring Xavier in both of those categories, we may not see the same level of success in this third meeting.
Xavier vs. Butler
Pick: Xavier -1
The market opened this game right on par with the projections of both KenPom and Bart Torvik.
However, the two disagree, as KenPom has the Musketeers favored by one point, while Bart Torvik has the Bulldogs as slight favorites.
On paper and on a neutral court, I favor the Musketeers. They should adjust to the Bulldogs' offensive scheme while controlling the glass on both ends.
If they can reduce turnovers, we could even see them pull away, as they did in the first meeting.
Pick: Xavier -1 (Play to -2.5)
