The Cal Bears play the Florida State Seminoles in the ACC Tournament. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Florida St is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -190. The total is set at 152.5 points.
Here’s my Cal vs. Florida State prediction and college basketball picks for March 11, 2026.
Cal vs Florida State Prediction
My Pick: Cal +4.5 or Better
My California vs Florida State best bet is on the Bears to cover. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Cal vs Florida State Odds, Spread
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
- Cal vs Florida State spread: Florida State -4.5
- Cal vs Florida State over/under: 152.5 points
- Cal vs Florida State moneyline: Cal +160, Florida State -190
Cal vs Florida State College Basketball Betting Preview
I project Cal as just a 1.3-point neutral-court underdog against Florida State, so I’m happy to grab the Bears at +4.5 or better, representing a minimum three-point difference between my projection and the market.
I’ve enjoyed backing Cal this season, mostly because I believe the Bears are undervalued away from home. They rank 23rd nationally in Haslametrics’ Away From Home ratings, having covered seven of 10.
These Bears went to Tallahassee about six weeks ago and took Florida State to the wire as 3.5-point underdogs, losing 63-61 in a 68-possession rock fight.
While Florida State has been playing far better basketball over the second half of the season, I think the love might be going a bit too far. The Seminoles were only laying 3.5 at home against Cal six weeks ago, but are laying 4.5 on a neutral now? Given I project Florida State’s home-court advantage being worth about three points, that’s a pretty significant four-point swing.
Schematically, I believe in Cal’s ability to hedge the ball out of Robbie McCray’s hands, and I believe in the backcourt of Dai Dai Ames and Justin Pippen to handle Florida State’s press — if you don’t turn the ball over against the Seminoles, you’ll often find advantages in transition.
My Pick: Cal +4.5 or Better
