A solid midweek slate lights up the college basketball calendar this Wednesday, with several high-stakes conference battles on tap.
I'm zeroing in on three plays for tonight.
Read below for college basketball best bets, including three NCAAB picks and predictions for Wednesday, January 7.
College Basketball Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m | |
  | 9 p.m | |
  | 11 p.m | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
East Carolina vs. Temple
The under in this American matchup is worth targeting. Given how each team plays offensively, the 146.5 total is somewhat inflated. Both programs have struggled mightily under their current regimes, and that dysfunction shows up most clearly on the offensive end, especially for the Pirates.
East Carolina’s offense is catastrophically bad for a team in this league, ranking 326th nationally per KenPom. The Pirates cannot shoot (360th ineffective field goal percentage), and they struggle badly to space the court against even the most elementary of opponents.
While the Pirates appear moderately quick on paper (88th in tempo), that number is misleading. East Carolina ranks 247th in average possession length, meaning possessions frequently stall, reset or end late in the clock. That combination is toxic for overs.
Temple is more deliberate by design. The Owls are perfectly content grinding in the half-court, sitting 280th in average possession length, and rarely pushing off makes or misses.
That stylistic choice alone lowers the possession ceiling, but the offensive outlook gets shakier if Derrian Ford is limited or out. He’s arguably Temple’s best creator and one of the few players capable of generating efficient shots late in the clock.
He missed the last game, and any absence or minutes restriction would further depress the Owls’ pace and scoring potential.
KenPom projects this game at 69 possessions, which feels optimistic given the way both teams’ offensive tendencies are. Extended half-court sequences, late-clock attempts and long rebound sequences should dominate.
With East Carolina’s awful offense, questionable shot creation and a game flow that’s likely slower than the raw tempo metrics suggest, the under 146.5 offers value in an ugly, grind-it-out AAC affair.
Pick: Under 146.5 (Play to 144)
Clemson vs. SMU
Clemson steps into a classic buy-low, advantageous situational spot here, laying 4.5 against SMU. The Mustangs are coming off an emotional, program-level high: a home win over UNC that marked their first Quad 1 victory since 2022.
That kind of can set up a dangerous letdown, especially with Duke looming this weekend. This has all the makings of a sandwich game for an SMU team that emptied the tank to get that enormous home win on Saturday.
From a matchup perspective, there is one legitimate concern for Clemson backers. Brad Brownell’s defense leans heavily on drop coverage, and SMU’s roster is tailor-made to punish that.
Boopie Miller, Jaron Pierre Jr. and B.J. Edwards are elite mid-range shot-makers who thrive in space and are comfortable pulling up against the drop. Clemson is not switchable, so the Tigers cannot adjust coverage.
Fortunately, Clemson’s advantage via its frontcourt versatility offsets that vulnerability. Nick Davidson, RJ Godfrey, Carter Welling and Jake Wahlin can really weaponize the other end of the floor.
SMU center Samet Yigitoglu is a capable rim protector, but he’s far less comfortable when dragged away from the basket.
Clemson’s ability to pop bigs in high-low situations, let the bigs put the ball on the floor, and force Yigitoglu to defend laterally should open driving lanes and offensive rebounding opportunities.
Layer in Clemson’s experience (34th nationally in that stat, per KenPom) and physicality, especially compared to an SMU team in a highly tenuous schedule spot, and the Tigers are well-positioned to control this game.
Laying 4.5 is reasonable in a spot where Clemson’s balance and situational edge should show.
Pick: Clemson -4.5 (Play to -6)
Grand Canyon vs. Boise State
Grand Canyon catching 8.5 points against Boise State is an appealing position in a Mountain West matchup between two teams still searching for stability.
Both programs already have five losses, a disappointment compared to preseason expectations.
Considering the talent and depth of the Grand Canyon roster, the Antelopes are not easily outclassed. Bryce Drew smartly assembled an intelligent group, highlighted by a strong transfer class blending high-end mid-major producers with power-conference experience.
The Antelopes can rotate bodies without sacrificing athleticism or shot creation, which matters greatly in a matchup where Boise typically relies on execution rather than explosive runs.
This is also a situation where Drew’s teams have historically thrived. Since 2020, Grand Canyon is 23–12 ATS (65.7%) as an underdog, consistently playing up against higher-end foes due to the Antelopes’ own talent and athleticism. That profile fits well here.
Matchup-wise, Boise’s biggest game-to-game strength is size and interior presence, but that advantage is muted against a Grand Canyon roster that is equally imposing. Both teams rank top 20 nationally in average height, per KenPom, limiting Boise’s ability to simply overwhelm the Antelopes at the rim.
Meanwhile, one of Grand Canyon’s main weaknesses – shaky ball security – isn’t something Boise is built to exploit. The Broncos rank 280th in forced turnover rate, meaning extra possessions are unlikely.
With comparable size and a strong historical ATS profile in this role, Grand Canyon should remain competitive throughout. Taking +8.5 gives plenty of room in what shapes up as a tight, physical game
Pick: Grand Canyon +8.5 (Play to +7)
