We have a massive Saturday slate on deck, but before we get there, some teams have their season hanging in the balance on Friday night, and there's an intriguing Big Ten tilt also happening.
But there's also betting value, too.
So, read below, for my college basketball best bets, including three NCAAB expert picks and predictions for Friday evening — March 7.
(There's a parlay option for these three picks below.)
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Purdue vs. Illinois
Illinois is starting to find its level after limping – literally and figuratively – through an injury- and illness-riddled January and February.
Brad Underwood’s team looked how he envisioned on Sunday at Michigan, racking up 1.33 points per possession, and Purdue’s vulnerable interior defense could make for another efficient performance.
Underwood’s offensive scheme this year is designed to generate open 3s, but the Illini have also been a buzzsaw when they do attack the paint.
Illinois ranks 14th nationally in 2-point percentage offense, led by pro prospect Kasparas Jakucionis as a jumbo point guard and Tomislav Ivisic’s outstanding finishing around the rim.
Purdue’s defense, meanwhile, ranks 337th nationally and last in the Big Ten in 2-point percentage allowed.
Of course, Illinois may not be able to get many stops, either. Its drop coverage against ball screens is designed to force the ball-handler to be a scorer.
Braden Smith, Purdue’s maestro of a point guard, will greedily gobble up all the space afforded to him and is fully capable of torching the nets with jumpers off the bounce. He routinely feasts against drop coverage.
Big man Trey Kaufman-Renn is the other ultra-consistent source of offense for the Boilers, and his scoring on the block will be crucial in this game. Illinois doesn't want to leave shooters along the perimeter, so TKR will consistently see single coverage.
Tempo-wise, both teams are willing to run opportunistically. Illinois especially loves to play in transition, and Smith will get Purdue out in the open floor at times.
Efficiency is the most likely source of success here, but a couple of extra possessions would certainly be welcome.
Pick: Over 159.5 (Play to 163)
USF vs. Memphis
First of all, congratulations to Memphis for clinching the top seed in the American Conference Tournament! Penny Hardaway’s squad is a game up in the standings and holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over North Texas.
Memphis deserved to celebrate. And I hope it did all week, late into the night.
Whether there’s a (literal or figurative) hangover effect or not, the Tigers as a big home favorite are a clear fade.
Over the last two seasons, Memphis is 1-14 against the spread as a double-digit home favorite. That's part of a 2-19-1 stretch in that situation under Hardaway.
And that was when the Tigers weren't celebrating a conference title.
South Florida has battled of late, losing by single-digits to top American squads North Texas (64-57), UAB (85-78) and FAU (69-63).
Memphis won by 15 in the first meeting, but that result was mostly about USF’s frigid perimeter shooting (7-of-29 from deep, 24.1%). USF held Memphis to just 42.9% shooting inside the arc, which should be sustainable from game-to-game.
Granted, USF is locked into the No. 9 seed in the American Tournament. But a shot at the league’s top dog should keep the Bulls engaged.
Be forewarned: There's a spot tax here. KenPom makes this game -17, while Bart Torvik has it -17.4. The number reflects the chances that the Tigers — locked into an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament and with no seeding to play for — could limit minutes for key players.
I had planned to make this a multi-unit wager, but the number is enough to temper my zeal.
Pick: USF +13.5 (Play to +12)
Pepperdine vs. Portland
WCC Tournament Second Round
The WCC Tournament ladder is an even longer climb with the additions of Oregon State and Washington State.
Portland and Pepperdine start near the bottom of that ladder, playing to earn a Saturday slot against Oregon State.
