If you are looking for college basketball top picks on Friday, I have you covered as I am targeting three specific games as part of the slate.
One is a key top-25 battle between Dayton and Cincinnati.
So, here is my NCAAB best bets, including three picks and predictions for Friday.
NCAAB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cincinnati vs. Dayton
Betting Cincinnati the game after its first Crosstown Shootout win in half a decade feels risky, certainly. Fortunately, the Bearcats have had six days to rinse that game (and the ensuing celebrations) from their system.
Now another key in-state test awaits them.
The motivation should remain high for a Cincinnati team that returns a ton of key pieces from the squad that got thrashed by Dayton in this same game a year ago. The Flyers led by double-digits for almost the entire second half, shutting down the Cincinnati offense until the game was out of reach.
Surely, that memory will linger for the veteran Bearcats.
Meanwhile, Dayton might actually be in the more challenging schedule spot. The Flyers are coming off two hugely emotional home wins in a row (Marquette, mid-week squeaker over UNLV) and now must rally for a third showdown with the angry Bearcats.
The Flyers proved in Maui they are capable of such a feat, and the arena will surely be filled with rabid Flyer faithful, but it still presents a challenge.
To this point, Cincinnati has built a significantly less sterling NCAA Tournament resume, despite ranking higher per KenPom, Bart Torvik, EvanMiya, etc. I expect an extra desperation note among this Cincinnati squad to legitimize what is already an appealing analytical profile.
From a matchup perspective, Cincinnati’s elite interior defense – and ability to shield the rim without fouling – stands out as a major edge. Dayton’s routes to easy points will be cut off.
Pick: Cincinnati -3.5 (Play to -4)
Florida A&M vs. BYU
I’m going with the massive favorite in Provo here. BYU has been a destroyer as a large home favorite this season, winning by 28, 44, 24, 44 and 38 when favored by 20+. The Cougars have only gone 3-2 against the closing spread in those games, but they did cover the opener in one of them.
Two big reasons stand out for the Cougars’ dominance: their size and their depth. BYU can absolutely bludgeon lesser opponents at the rim and on the glass; the offense has a safe floor because it gobbles up so many offensive rebounds.
Plus, the defense ranks first in the entire country in defensive rebound rate. The Cougars force difficult initial shots and take away any chance of second shots.
BYU also ranks 12th in the country in bench minutes, per KenPom. That depth means that the front door is always open for a late cover. BYU has incredibly talented players at the end of the bench, all of whom are constantly vying for more playing time. Garbage time minutes is often their only opportunity to truly audition for bigger minutes.
The Cougars catch a Florida A&M team playing out the string of a two-game elevation road trip. The Rattlers gamely battled for a narrow cover at Utah, pulling off a 9-0 run after getting down by 35.
But elevation can wear on a team. Queens attempted this same feat, and the Royals lost by 31 at Utah and then 44 at BYU. The Cougars’ relentless physicality amplifies the elevation edge.
You can essentially make the number what you want here, because BYU can do the same thing on the court. If the Cougars want to win by 40+, they can, and I believe they will.
Pick: BYU -33.5 (Play to -36)
Jackson State vs. UTEP
My final pre-Christmas gift to you is … taking the points with an 0-10 team on the road! Happy holidays!
Jackson State is wildly underrated by its horrific record and a sub-300 KenPom rating. Injuries have cut the Tigers’ rotation at the knees for basically the entire season; only two players have appeared in all 10 games. Jackson State has used seven different starting lineups already.
Considering Jackson State has only played road games so far (KenPom’s third-most difficult schedule), that rotating cast of characters has been a nightmare.
A respite was needed, and thankfully, Jackson State got one. The Tigers have not played since Dec. 8, giving Mo Williams’ MASH unit a chance to rest and recharge its batteries.
It’s hard to know exactly who will play, but I am banking on at least some of the seven (!) key players who missed Jackson State's last game returning in this one.
Chief among those pieces is Daeshun Ruffin, the former top-50 recruit at Ole Miss who has struggled with knee injuries in his career. He made a two-game cameo to start December but sat out the prior tilt at Iowa State. His on-ball dynamism would be immensely helpful against UTEP’s pressure.
Speaking of the host Miners, their style is another key part of this handicap. UTEP is a scrappy bunch, forcing turnovers galore (and fouling at a sky-high rate). It’s a style conducive to covering games as an underdog, but it’s not as effective at blowing out inferior foes.
In its last 10 games as a home favorite of 10+ points, UTEP is just 3-7 against the spread. That includes squeaking by Tarleton State as a 15-point favorite on Monday.
When healthy, Jackson State might be the most talented team in the SWAC. The Tigers have yet to be close to fully healthy, but after such a long layoff, they should be as close as they have been all year.
They can hang around in El Paso.
Pick: Jackson State +14.5 (Play to +12)
