The American sports landscape wouldn’t be complete without our love-hate relationship with dynasties.
We build teams up and then love to tear them down. So, it’s a bit surprising that the Florida Gators, the defending national champions in college basketball, are flying under the radar.
There are a few reasonable explanations for the Gators' lack of buzz.
In the transfer portal era, it’s difficult to retain talent, and Florida is no exception. The Gators' top three scorers from a year ago are now all in the NBA, and only two starters in total returned to Gainesville this season.
And then there’s the national landscape. The AP top 10 has taken fewer losses at this point in the season than ever before, a stat that validates the feeling that we have a special cluster of elite teams at the top of the polls.
With less continuity for UF, more elite foes to climb over and the deepest freshman class in the history of the sport sucking up all the oxygen, it’s no wonder that oddsmakers have been slow to react to Florida’s midseason resurgence.
Here’s how I’m taking advantage of generous futures markets that feature Florida, so let's dive into the college basketball futures and my NCAAB picks for the Final Four.
College Basketball Futures, Picks
One way to throw cold water on your title defense is by opening the season 5-4, as Todd Golden’s team did this year.
Three of those four losses came to teams currently ranked in the AP top five in Arizona, Duke and UConn. The Gators’ fourth-ranked strength of schedule has kept the public off their scent — until now.
Since that underwhelming 5-4 start to its season, Florida is on an 11-2 tear. One of those two losses came by a single bucket at Missouri on Jan. 3.
If you filter by performance since Jan. 1, the Gators are the second-rated team, per Bart Torvik, with top-10 efficiency ratings on both ends of the floor. They just dropped the hammer on Alabama, 100-77, on Sunday, and their schedule is about to open up.
The Gators’ SEC opponents for the remainder of the regular season carry an average KenPom ranking of just 47th. The only top-25 challenger is Arkansas (24th), and the Hogs have to travel to the O’Dome to face UF.
The back-half of their SEC slate gives them a real opportunity to finish with 23 or 24 wins, which would put them on the 4-line with the potential to jump up to the 3-line if they reach the SEC Championship in Nashville.
On the floor, the Gators have forged an identity that's sure to serve them well in tournament settings next month.
They can rebound at an elite level thanks to their trio of rugged bigs in Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu. As a team, the Gators sit top-five in every rebounding metric, and their big three contribute 26 rebounds per game, with 8.7 of them coming on the offensive glass.
Defensively, they defend opposing bigs really well and make it nearly impossible for opponents to find quality looks inside the arc, with a ranking of 11th in 2-point percentage allowed.
The Gators defense and rebounding give them a high floor, which means their Final Four hopes will come down to their mercurial guards.
Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee have been boom or bust for much of the season.
Fland has three times as many off-shooting nights (20% from the field) as he does 20-point outbursts. And Lee has been held to seven points or fewer in two-thirds of his conference games.
It took superstar guard play to carry UF through March Madness last spring, but elevated play from Fland and Lee would only be the cherry on top.
This team is built to win with its frontcourt, and if it's placed in a favorable region away from high-scoring juggernauts like Arizona, Duke or Illinois, you’ll be happy to be holding a Final Four ticket close to 5-1.
Pick: Florida to Make Final Four (+475)
