Saint Louis vs Dayton Odds
| Saint Louis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 136 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 136 -110o / -110u | -205 |
The Dayton Flyers host the Saint Louis Billikens on Friday night in a matchup for (possibly) first place in the Atlantic 10 standings.
Dayton is 8-4 in conference, trailing Saint Louis and VCU. Saint Louis is 8-3, so this game will matter plenty for tournament aspirations.
Saint Louis has not shown much of a trend toward unders thus far this season. The Billikens are 11-11-1 ATS on totals, while Dayton’s slow pace has carried it to a 15-10 mark when targeting the under. That means the market hasn't kept up with how slow the Flyers truly play.
Given that this game is in Dayton, and that the Flyers are a defensive-focused team, look for the under to hit yet again.
Saint Louis Billikens
Saint Louis is the opposite of the Flyers. The Billikens rank 97th in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom and are 68th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 149th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
That said, Saint Louis doesn't turn over opponents, which can be conducive to an under because the Billikens will be unable to get out in transition and push the pace. On the year, they are only turning opponents over 14.8% of the time, which ranks 347th in college hoops. Turnovers are one of Dayton’s biggest issues (20.1% offensive turnover rate), so this is a reprieve for the Flyers.
On the offensive end, Saint Louis is much better at taking care of the ball with only a 17.2% turnover clip against Dayton’s defensive turnover rate of 16.5%. Overall, turnovers should be at a minimum between these teams.
Saint Louis primarily focuses on getting the ball inside. It ranks 284th in 3-point attempt rate (33.8%) and has scored 54.4% of its points inside the arc. The Billikens are shooting 51.5% on 2s and 34.4% from 3-point range.
That said, the Flyers have a solid defense. They are only yielding 1.1 points per possession (PPP) on shots at the rim, per Shot Quality. The Flyers are also holding opponents to 1.02 PPP on catch-and-shoot 3s and 0.99 PPP on off-the-dribble 3s. Essentially, the Flyers have a defensive match for the Billikens in most places on the floor.
Great example of the defensive ability of DaRon Holmes. Great defense in space on second round pick Ryan Rollins leads to a nice block pic.twitter.com/HTpdTq8kY5
— Nxt Hoops (@hoopsnxtnow) July 26, 2022
Dayton Flyers
The Flyers typically manufacture points from 2-point range and from the free-throw line. Saint Louis does have a tendency to foul with a 32.6% free-throw attempt rate on defense, so this will probably play into the hands of the Flyers at home.
However, Dayton is shooting less than 70% from the line, so unless Saint Louis is fouling Mustapha Amzil, who hits 78% of his free throws, in the post, the Billikens should be in the clear with R.J. Blakney, Toumani Camara and DaRon Holmes II, as they are all shooting below 62% from the free-throw line.
Other than that, Saint Louis may leave some 3s open, but Dayton is only shooting 33.5% from distance.
On the interior, the Billikens are allotting their opponents only 1.13 PPP at the rim (ShotQuality) and 0.98 PPP on off-the-dribble 3s. Since Dayton struggles with catch-and-shoot 3s (269th in PPP), the Billikens will have a match, as long as they are not fouling too often.
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Photo by CBB Analytics
Saint Louis vs Dayton Betting Pick
Dayton has a top-50 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom, and at home, the Flyers should receive an additional boost against a conference rival.
As long as Saint Louis is not fouling, it will be able to hold a relatively weak Dayton offense in check. In addition, since both teams refuse to turn their opposition over on defense, there should not be much play in transition.
Expect the under trend to continue with the Flyers’ 330th-ranked Adjusted Tempo (KenPom). Take the under from 137 (-110), and play it to 135.5 (-110).
Pick: Under 137 (Play to 135.5) |
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