Follow all of Nick Giffen's NCAA Basketball player prop picks in the Action App.
Last year, I had a +98.8 units college basketball season on player props, including a 75-31 (70.8%) run for +47.65u in the NCAA Tournament alone.
I'm back with my first college basketball player prop bet of the 2024-25 season for Florida vs. North Carolina.
College Basketball Player Prop for Florida vs North Carolina
One of the key features of our Action Network player prop projections is our rebound adjustment, which comes in big here.
Florida has played the 23rd-easiest rebounding schedule in the nation to date, while UNC has faced the third-toughest opponent rebounding schedule.
That means the market may be undervaluing Tar Heel rebounds on Tuesday, and the best value I've found is on Seth Trimble over 4.5 at +125 at bet365.
Trimble's rebound rates so far are comparable to last year, so we can have faith that those are pretty solid numbers to work with. There is probably a slight underestimation in the market on his minutes, given two of his last three games played came in relative blowouts.
Florida has all the makings of a team that should yield more rebounds, as it plays in the top 100 in pace and shoots 3s at the 76th-highest rate in the nation while not making very many (156th in 3-point percentage). That will produce more defensive rebounding opportunities for the Tar Heels.
On the other side of the court, the Gators aren't a great defensive rebounding team, ranking 126th in raw defensive rebound rate despite facing the 17th-easiest schedule for opposing offensive rebounds. That adjustment means they are below average on the defensive glass at this point in the season after adjusting for schedule.
One other nice benefit of playing Florida is the lack of free throws in its contests. The Gators draw fouls at only the 220th-best rate in the nation, while committing them at the 50th-lowest rate. That means more possessions will end in shot attempts rather than at the line, which should produce a few extra board opportunities.
I'm projecting Trimble for an average of five rebounds with a 56% chance of going over 4.5. That produces a nice 11.8% edge at +125 odds. That is still a solid 9.7% edge if you are only able to bet it at Caesars Sportsbook at +115, or an 8.6% edge at +110 at FanDuel or BetMGM.
Pick: Seth Trimble Over 4.5 Rebounds (+125 via bet365)
