Saturday's are now in sole possession of college hoops as we're just a few weeks away from March Madness. However, there's still plenty of ball to be played until then, and there are plenty of big edges to capitalize on in the player prop market.
So, let's dive right into our top three college basketball player props for this Saturday's slate.
Jesse Edwards Over 12.5 Points (-110)
West Virginia vs. Iowa State | 2 p.m. ET
This afternoon, the West Virginia Mountaineers are double-digit underdogs to the Iowa State Cyclones. The reason why is on paper: They have one of the toughest assignments in the country, as they're going on the road against the second-best defensive team in the nation in terms of Adjusted Efficiency.
However, the market has come in and shown support for them on the spread. So, if they're going to cover their opening line, someone is going to have to put the ball in the bucket, and that will be Jesse Edwards.
The Mountaineers big man has been a consistent source of production this year, as he comes in averaging 14.8 points per game on the season. He'll be relied on once again, as the Cyclones allow the majority of their points from the paint.
Aside from the matchup, Edwards has shown this line is too low. He's surpassed this number in a staggering 82% of games this season. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -456, which is tremendous value on the current price.
Pick: Jesse Edwards Over 12.5 Points
Antonio Reeves Under 22.5 Points (-115)
Alabama vs. Kentucky | 4 p.m. ET
Antonio Reeves has taken considerable strides in his second year at Kentucky. He's no longer just a 3-point specialist, as he's shown that he can fill it up from all three levels.
However, shots from downtown are still a big part of his game; he's averaging nearly six 3-point attempts per game.
This afternoon, he's going to be in an up-tempo matchup against Alabama, which has defended the perimeter well this season (44th in 3-point percentage allowed).
The expectation of more volume in this matchup has inflated his points prop to a number that gives us a significant edge. Reeves averages 19.7 points per game, and his line is set three points higher than that.
This season, he's gone under this total in 18 of 26 games played. That hit rate on this under is 69%, which gives us implied odds of -223 that he'll go under again today.
Pick: Antonio Reeves Under 22.5 Points
Augustas Marciulionis Under 7.5 Assists (-115)
San Diego vs. Saint Mary's | 10 p.m. ET
To round out our card, we head out West, where the Saint Mary's Gaels are big favorites over San Diego tonight. The Gaels are projected to win by 20, according to KenPom, and that blowout scenario only helps the case for this overinflated line.
The Gaels are a methodical half-court offense, but they use plenty of motion and ball movement to create high-percentage looks.
One player who's been a big part of that is guard Augustas Marciulionis.
Marciulionis has taken on a more prominent role in the offense as the season has gone along. His passing ability has become crucial to the Gaels' success, but he may be getting too much credit here.
He's gone under this total in 24 of 28 games played this season, which includes eight of his last 10. That hit rate gives us what may be the largest edge on the board today. An 85% probability makes this line -567.
