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It's a busy Tuesday in college basketball and I've got a favorite prop I'm betting in this evening's game between Villanova and UConn.
College Basketball Player Props for Villanova vs. UConn
Solo Ball Under 4.5 Rebounds (-120)
Solo Ball has gone over this line in each of his last two games, but both had extenuating circumstances.
Ball had seven rebounds in an overtime game against Seton Hall, which is one of the worst shooting teams in the nation, and had five against a Creighton team that missed 17 3-point attempts.
Of the two, the Creighton game might be more similar to tonight against Villanova in that both teams shoot 3-points at a high rate. However, Creighton takes 6.3% more 3-point attempts than Villanova, shoots 5.6% worse on those attempts, is a much worse rebounding team, and plays at a pace that is five possessions per game higher.
All of these would factor into Ball getting fewer opportunities tonight than he did against the Bluejays.
Additionally, UConn's best rebounder, Tarris Reed, played just 24 total minutes in those last two games. He generally plays around 18.5 minutes per game, so any uptick in minutes from those previous two should hurt Ball's chances for rebounds.
Also, Liam McNeeley is rounding more into form in his fourth game since returning from injury, and I don't think Ball's rebound splits with and without McNeeley are fully factored in given the two most recent outlier-ish games.
Consider: without McNeeley, Ball averaged 6.2 rebounds per 40 minutes, and with McNeeley, that number drops to 3.5.
I'm projecting Ball at 3.7 rebounds tonight with a 65% chance to stay under 4.5.
