I’ve had a terrible year of gambling.
After struggling with college basketball for so many months, I decided it was time to throw out my old system and try on a new one. Adapt or die, as they say.
So, I spent the Summer trying to learn more about the numbers.
The result of countless hours of research and self-teaching? The Action Network’s own set of college basketball power ratings, and a simple score prediction model we can apply to any game of the 2025-26 season.
I’ll be updating this article daily with our projected scores. Feel free to bookmark this page and revisit while handicapping.
A couple of essential things to note:
- This project is far from complete. I’ll be spending countless more hours tweaking the input data and prediction equation.
- Home-court advantage has been adjusted for, and I have filtered that out for games on neutral courts.
- We’re still working on how to incorporate injury adjustments into the daily projections. For now, all of these projections are under the assumption that both teams are at full strength, so please keep injury reports in mind.
Also, while I’ll mostly be just updating the numbers each day, if there are games that intrigue me and show value, I’ll provide some matchup news and notes at the end.
Best of luck this season, everyone!
College Basketball Projections for Friday, November 7
Georgetown vs Maryland Projection, Pick
| Georgetown Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 146 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 146 -110o / -110u | -270 |
- Market Odds: Maryland -5.5
- Our Projection: Maryland -12.8
Buzz Williams runs a switch-everything, underscreen, compact defense that forces opponents into isolation while shutting off the rim.
That will likely be a considerable problem for Georgetown, as Ed Cooley runs a flex-adjacent offense that runs most of its offense through the middle of the court, and the Terps will clog the lane.
The way to beat Maryland’s defense is through isolation creation and weak-side catch-and-shoot creation.
I don’t think the Hoyas can do either.
Langston Love is a good ISO creator (.96 PPP, 73rd percentile), but KJ Lewis isn’t, and Malik Mack might get shut off in this game (the Terps should force the ball out of his hands).
At the same time, there’s a severe lack of shooting and floor spacing. They shot 4-for-26 (15%) from 3 against Coppin State in the opener, shooting 3-for-11 on open catch-and-shoot 3s and 1-for-12 on guarded ones.
Georgetown has taken a ton of money, and I think the reason might be Solomon Washington’s absence. He’s a significant loss on the defensive end, but I don’t think he’s worth seven points compared to our current projection.
Plus, Myles Rice is expected to be back for this game, which will be a huge boost for the Terps on the offensive end, which is where they’ll need it most against a stingy Georgetown defense.
But — as all Buzz teams do — I suspect the Terps will live on the offensive glass. Georgetown was vulnerable there last season, and I have serious questions about the big man rotation from a rim protection and glass cleaning perspective. The Hoyas were just +2 in the rebounding department against Morgan State, allowing 11 offensive rebounds, and Vince Iwuchukwu posted a lousy 7% defensive rebounding rate last season.
I’ll fade some steam, although it's worth mentioning that Ed Cooley-led teams are a ridiculous 103-65-2 ATS as road 'dogs (61% win, 18.9% ROI).
Pick: Maryland -5.5 (-110, bet365)
Furman vs Troy Projection, Pick
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Furman Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
- Market Odds: Furman -2.5
- Our Projection: Troy -1
Furman’s backcourt was a significant question mark entering the season, and the Paladins showed why in their season-opening 26-point loss to High Point.
Furman turned it over 22 times, including eight from Alex Wilkins, who is supposed to replace First-Team All-Conference point guard PJay Smith.
That’s going to be a massive problem against Troy, as Scott Cross-led defenses will press and trap at top-30 rates nationally. The Trojans might pressure cook the ‘Dins into oblivion.
I’m a big fan of Furman’s frontcourt (Cooper Bowser and Ben VanderWal), but High Point dropped 52 paint points on the duo this past Monday. That worries me against Sun Belt POY candidate Thomas Dowd and a Trojan offense that dropped 40 paint points in their opening-night victory over Kent State.
Pick: Troy +2.5 (-105, bet365)
