The Dayton Flyers play the VCU Rams in the Atlantic 10 Championship. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
VCU is favored by -3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. Meanwhile, Dayton is the underdog at +3 with a moneyline of +135. The total is set at 139 points.
Here’s my Dayton vs. VCU prediction and college basketball picks for March 15, 2026.
Dayton vs VCU Prediction
My Pick: VCU -2.5
My Dayton vs VCU best bet is on the Rams to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Dayton vs. VCU Odds, Spread, Total
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 139 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| VCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 139 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Dayton vs VCU Betting Pick
Dayton is in full bid-stealing territory. In order to secure the bid, the Flyers will have to beat a VCU squad they lost to twice in the regular season.
The Flyers' strength is on defense, where they rank 32nd in efficiency. They thrive at forcing turnovers, securing a take away 21% of the time, a top-five rate in the country. They also limit teams from scoring inside, limiting opponents to 49% shooting on 2-pointers.
The presence of 7-footer Amael L’Etang plays an integral role in Dayton’s rim-dominant defense. He did a terrific job contesting the shots of Saint Louis drivers in this tournament, and he’s done it all season.
As a response to Dayton’s turnover success, VCU did an excellent job handling the ball in both regular season meetings, turning it over seven times and 12 times. Even the 12 times equaled just a 14% turnover rate, well below Dayton’s season average.
I’m a bit less sold on Dayton’s offense without forcing turnovers. The Flyers are just 138th in offensive efficiency, and they rank 166th in both 2-point and 3-point percentage.
The go-to option for the Flyers offense is Javon Bennett, who averages 16 points per game on 39% shooting and 34% from deep. The second-leading scorer is De’Shayne Montgomery with 13 points per game, but Anthony Grant benched him for the final 10 minutes of the Saint Louis game.
I feel like the best offense for Dayton is doing some pick-and-pops with L’Etang and Bennett. The 7-foot-1 Frenchman can shoot it, so that can be a plus for the Flyers.
The Rams are a lot more well-rounded than Dayton. If it needs to play a rock fight, VCU can make it right, as it ranks 63rd in defensive efficiency. However, if the Rams have to score 75+ points, that’s not a problem for the 45th-most efficient offense in the country, per KenPom.
VCU could make Dayton pay for its aggressive defense. It reaches the free-throw line at a 44% clip, and Dayton is outside the top-200 in defensive free-throw rate. On the flip side, Dayton reaches the foul line 47% of the time, but VCU sends teams to the line less than Dayton.
That could be the deciding factor in this matchup. The strong defense from VCU guards Nyk Lewis and Brandon Jennings should limit Bennett and force other Dayton players to beat them.
Those factors make VCU ATS the play for me.
My Pick: VCU -2.5
