The Dayton Flyers take on the VCU Rams in Richmond, Virginia. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
VCU is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -330. The total is set at 149 points.
Here’s my Dayton vs. VCU prediction and college basketball picks for February 6, 2026.
Dayton vs VCU Prediction
My Pick: VCU -7.5 (Play to -9)
My Dayton vs VCU best bet is on the Rams to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Dayton vs. VCU Odds, Spread
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
| VCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 148.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
- Dayton vs VCU spread: VCU -7.5
- Dayton vs VCU over/under: 148.5 points
- Dayton vs VCU moneyline: Dayton +265, VCU -330
Dayton vs VCU NCAAB Betting Preview
Dayton Basketball
Dayton might be on the brink of not trying too hard for the rest of the regular season, as almost nothing is at stake for it.
The Flyers started the season ranked 54th in KenPom and are now 90th, with a 15-8 overall record and a 6-4 record in the A-10. They snapped a four-game losing streak in their most recent game, but they needed a pair of free throws at the buzzer to do so.
The Flyers' offense is a total train wreck. Over its past nine games, Dayton ranks 228th in offensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik.
The Flyers have some very worrying underlying numbers. They have almost no interior scoring attack and are shooting just 50% from inside the arc (231st). They're also shooting just 33% from deep (201st) and turning it over 18% of the time.
It feels like Dayton filled Javon Bennett's plate with too much. He was a strong contributing guard the past few years, but he was given a larger role this season and hasn't done well with it. He shoots 37% from the field and 32% from deep.
The best pure scorer on the roster is De'Shayne Montgomery, who adds 15 points per game and shoots 52% from the field. For the Flyers to get on track, he'll need to put up big numbers.
This lineup is very lean in the shooting department. Montgomery is a driller from deep and Keonte Jones shoots 37% from 3, but Jones averages just 1.3 attempts per game. Everyone else shoots below 33% from downtown, which can make the Flyers very predictable in the half-court.
On the defensive end, Dayton has tapered off from what was once an elite unit. Dayton ranks 53rd in Bart Torvik's defensive efficiency, but it's 105th over its past nine games.
The Flyers have a ton of athleticism and length that forces giveaways at a 22% clip. However, if you can break down the press, you can score on Dayton. Opponents shoot 49% on 2s and 36% from deep, so it's turnover or bust for the Flyers.
VCU Basketball
VCU is one of the better teams in the A-10, but it's been a bit of a bumpy ride getting to 8-2 in league play. The Rams aren't the dominant force some may expect. They've been a bit overpriced at times and are just 10-13 ATS.
The Rams' offense centers around shooting and getting to the foul line. They attempt 3s on 44% of their field goal attempts and connect on 36% of them.
Plus, VCU is 10th nationally with a 45% free-throw rate.
Terrence Hill Jr. is the go-to option for the Rams. He leads the team with 14 points per game and shoots 39.9% from deep. Jadrian Tracey is the next best shooter on VCU's roster, shooting 37% from downtown.
I expect Ryan Odom to gameplan around Lazar Djokovic getting the ball. He ranks 10th in free-throw rate and is the Rams' second-highest leading scorer.
Defense has been a bit of an issue for VCU, which ranks 84th in defensive efficiency. It pressures often and forces turnovers on 17% of its possessions. The Rams also limit teams to shooting 48% from inside the arc. So, it's a bit surprising that their defense is just 84th, but that's because opponents are shooting 34% from deep.
Dayton vs. VCU Betting Analysis
The spread is just -7.5, which seems a bit light.
The Flyers can't shoot enough to expose VCU's defense, and I also expect their pressure to lead to several fouls.
If the Rams live at the foul line, this could be a blowout.
My Pick: VCU -7.5 (Play to -9)
