The Drexel Dragons take on the Howard Bison in Washington, DC. Tip-off is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Drexel is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 145 points.
Here’s my Drexel vs. Howard predictions and college basketball picks for December 17, 2024.
Drexel vs Howard Prediction
My Pick: Over 144 or Better
My Drexel vs Howard best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Drexel vs Howard Odds, Lines, Pick
| Drexel Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 145 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Howard Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 145 -110o / -110u | +125 |
- Drexel vs Howard spread: Drexel -2.5
- Drexel vs Howard over/under: 145 points
- Drexel vs Howard moneyline: Drexel -150, Howard +125
- Drexel vs Howard best bet: Over 144 or Better
My Drexel vs Howard College Basketball Betting Preview
I think the Dragons are a tad overvalued following their somewhat lucky win over Albany last Saturday.
The Great Danes shot 2-for-19 (11%) from 3 in that matchup, and ShotQuality projected the post-game final score as an 11-point Albany win based on the “quality” of shots taken from each team.
Following the Danes' tough shooting performance, Drexel opponents have shot 28% from 3 on the season. While the Dragons are a solid catch-and-shoot denial defense, that mark is wholly unsustainable. ShotQuality projects opponents should shoot closer to 33% from deep against them based on the “quality” of attempts allowed.
I think this is an excellent time for the regression train to pull into Dragon Station because Howard runs an elite Princeton motion offense that ranks in the top 50 nationally in ShotQuality’s Spacing and Shot Making metrics.
The Bison are shooting 39% from 3 and are due for zero regression, given their sound shot selection profile.
To summarize my points more briefly, I expect Howard to make a ton of 3s on Tuesday. Backcourt mates Blake Harper and Marcus Dockery combine for 30 points per game on over 10 3-point attempts per night — Dockery is shooting 48% from deep so far this season.
Howard’s issues lie on the other end of the court. The Bison boast one of the nation’s worst interior defenses (61% 2-point shooting allowed, 353rd nationally; 30 at-the-rim points per game allowed, 302nd; 37 paint points per game allowed, 12th percentile).
They genuinely lack any semblance of rim protection. Opponents are generating over 20 at-the-rim field goal attempts per game, and the Bison are allowing them to shoot nearly 75% on those shots.
Even worse, Howard has been playing without 6-foot-9 Dom Campbell and 6-foot-4 Bryce Harris lately, two crucial frontcourt defenders. The Bison are extremely small without the two, which helps explain why they have allowed 98 paint points in their last two games (Cincinnati, UNC Wilmington).
I'm unsure if either will play, but Howard should get ripped to shreds by Drexel’s ball-screen-centric, rim-reliant offense either way. The Dragons average over 35 paint points per game (78th percentile) and shoot nearly 55% from inside the arc (top 100 nationally).
Jason "Deuce" Drake is a phenomenal ball-screen initiator (.93 PPP, 74th percentile), while Kobe MaGee, Yame Butler and Cole Hargrove combine for over 40 points per game. Hargrove averages nine paint points per game on over 70% shooting from the interior, and he should eat against Howard's undersized and undermanned front.
Between Howard’s long-range sharpshooting, Drexel's looming defensive regression, the Dragons' point-blank dominance and Howard's lifeless interior defense, I expect a high-efficiency offensive battle, which makes me want to bet the over.
I’m a tad worried about the projected pace of the game, given both teams run more methodical half-court offenses.
Still, neither team has been able to take care of the basketball, so both are giving up too many easy run-outs, which could make both squads run more than usual.
