The Georgia Southern Eagles take on the Troy Trojans in the 2026 Sun Belt Tournament Championship in Pensacola, Florida, on Monday, March 9. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Troy is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -294. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here are my Georgia Southern vs. Troy predictions and college basketball picks for Monday, March 9.
Georgia Southern vs Troy Prediction
My Pick: Under 149.5
My Georgia Southern vs Troy best bet is on both teams to go under the total. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Georgia Southern vs Troy Odds
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 150 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 150 -110o / -110u | -275 |
- Georgia Southern vs Troy Spread: Troy -6.5, Georgia Southern +6.5
- Georgia Southern vs Troy Over/Under: 150 Points
- Georgia Southern vs Troy Moneyline: Georgia Southern +225, Troy -275
Georgia Southern vs Troy College Basketball Betting Preview
Georgia Southern Basketball
Georgia Southern has been on an incredible run over the last week and has won five games in five days in order to get to the Sun Belt Championship game.
The Eagles have defied all odds, defeating three of the top five teams in the conference without a day off.
Georgia Southern made enough shots and had success getting into the paint against Marshall, as an incredible 18 offensive rebounds led to second-chance putbacks and trips to the line.
While never fully in control, the Eagles picked up a few defensive stops and hit enough free throws late to eke out a win.
Troy Basketball
Troy earned the No. 1 seed in league play despite midseason struggles hitting the Trojans during the second half of the conference schedule.
Troy won three out of four down the stretch, and the time off experienced during the unique layout of the Sun Belt Tournament was much needed for head coach Scott Cross and his group.
The Trojans took care of Southern Miss in the semifinals and look to close out the Sun Belt Championship with a win over Cinderella Georgia Southern and punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
Georgia Southern vs Troy Pick, Betting Analysis
This game opened with Troy as a 5.5-point favorite with the total set at 153.5. I'm going to dive in on the under.
Georgia Southern has been on a heater with its outside shooting during this conference tournament run.
The Eagles have made 65 3-point shots while shooting 42% from deep over the last five games. Now, they have to line up against the top 3-point defense in the Sun Belt.
Troy's 3-point defense sits at 30%. With the Eagles playing their sixth game in as many nights, we could see some shooting regression come for them.
We saw a bit of that regression against Marshall, as Georgia Southern made just seven shots from deep. However, the Eagles corralled 18 offensive rebounds against the Thundering Herd, which led to easy putbacks and trips to the stripe.
Troy boasts a much better defensive rebounding unit, one that holds the fourth-best mark in defensive free-throw rate. Georgia Southern was consistently bailed out by Marshall committing fouls, something I don't think we will see here.
Troy wants to play slowly here and should control the pace. The Trojans operate at a much slower tempo offensively, and while Georgia Southern got into a solid offensive rhythm against opponents who wanted to run with them, Troy will be deliberate about being methodical in the half-court.
I don't foresee Georgia Southern being able to get out and run in transition against Troy, which wants this game played in the low 60s for overall possession count.
Spudd Webb and Tyren Moore have been absolutely incredible for Georgia Southern during this run, but there can't be much more left in the tank.
I expect tired legs and short jumpers for Georgia Southern, and if the Eagles can get into the lane, Thomas Dowd and Victor Valdes should be in position to block or alter shots for Troy.
I think this game will have a different flow than every other Georgia Southern game has had, one with a less frenetic pace. As long as we avoid a heavy whistle from the officiating crew, this game should stay under the posted total.
My Pick: Under 149.5
