The Illinois State Redbirds play the Auburn Tigers in the NIT semifinals from Indianapolis, Indiana. Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Auburn is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -298. The total is set at 148.5 points.
Here’s my Illinois State vs. Auburn predictions and college basketball picks for Thursday, April 2.
Illinois State Redbirds vs Auburn Tigers Prediction, Picks
My Pick: Auburn -6.5 (Play to -8)
My Illinois State vs Auburn best bet is on the Tigers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Illinois State vs Auburn Odds, Spread, Line
| Illinois State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 149 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 149 -110o / -110u | -360 |
- Illinois State vs Auburn Spread: Auburn -8, Illinois State +8
- Illinois State vs Auburn Over/Under: 149
- Illinois State vs Auburn Moneyline: Illinois State ML +280, Auburn ML -360
Illinois State vs Auburn Pick, NIT Preview
Illinois State has gotten hot in a non-March Madness tournament for the second straight year. Last season, it was the CBI, and this season, it’s the NIT. The Redbirds pulled off huge upsets at Wake Forest and Dayton to reach Indy.
The Redbirds' offense was a major sore spot all season. The Redbirds sit at 147th in offensive efficiency, which you’d think is better since they shoot 54% on 2s (67th) and 34.8% from 3 (130th)
The issue is that they rank outside the top 250 in offensive rebounding and free-throw rate. Plus, they shoot 3s at a 42% clip. So, 34% isn’t bad, but for a high-volume shooting team that doesn’t get offensive rebounds, a cold shooting night could lead to their demise.
Illinois State hangs its hat on defense, ranking 61st in defensive efficiency, while holding teams to 49% shooting on 2-pointers (80th) and 32% from 3-point range (74th). The Redbirds also rank 12th in defensive rebounding rate, which is a unique feat for a team that starts four players 6-foot-5 or smaller.
The group rebounds collectively, and the guards all rebound well for their position.
One of two things will need to occur for Illinois State to cover.
Either 6-foot-9, 280-pound beast Chase Walker stays out of foul trouble and scores 20+ points, or the Redbirds' shooters go off. We’ll see if either can happen, but it can’t have a “C” or “B” game and battle Auburn. It has to be an “A” game.
Meanwhile, Auburn clearly values playing in the NIT, as it looks motivated to win the event. However, the Tigers are 1-2 against the spread in the tourney. They failed to cover against Nevada despite leading by 16, and they also led by 16 against Seattle before blowing the cover.
The late-game execution has been less than ideal.
The Tigers' offense was among the best in the country, ranking 12th in efficiency. They don't shoot it well from deep, hitting just 33% of their 3s, but they rank top-15 in offensive rebounds and free-throw rate.
I was a bit skeptical about whether Auburn could remain dominant on the offensive glass sans KeShawn Murphy, who opted out of the NIT. The Tigers are grabbing offensive boards at just above a 30% rate in this tourney, though.
That's a bit worse than their season average of 37%, but still enough to make up for a lack of shooting.
It would be nice for high-volume scorers Tahaad Pettiford and Keyshawn Hall to play well. Pettiford is finishing off what is a trainwreck of a season, shooting 32% from the field and 13% from 3 in the NIT.
Hall could be a real matchup nightmare for Illinois State. He hunts shots, but he's 6-foot-7 with real creation skills. I expect him to have a big game.
The X-factors are Elyjah Freeman and Filip Jovic.
Due to Murphy's opt-out, Auburn is a bit thin behind Jovic at the five. Jovic has to avoid fouling the bigger Walker for the Redbirds. Freeman is up to 12.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game in the NIT, and he's shooting it well from deep.
Defense is the concern here. The Tigers are 117th in defensive efficiency and allow teams to shoot 37% from downtown and 52% from 2. I just don't think Illinois State has enough offensive weapons to fully expose this Auburn defense.
I'm laying the points with the Tigers.
My Pick: Auburn -6.5 (Play to -8)
