The Indiana Hoosiers take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City, IA. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Iowa is favored by 5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. The total is set at 166.5 points.
Here are my Indiana vs. Iowa predictions and college basketball picks for January 11, 2025.
Indiana vs Iowa Prediction and Pick
My Pick: PASS | Lean Iowa ATS or Iowa ML as Parlay Piece
My Indiana vs Iowa best bet is a pass with a slight lean toward the Hawkeyes, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Indiana vs Iowa Odds, Spread, and Total
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 166.5 -110 / -110 | +180 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 166.5 -110 / -110 | -220 |
- Indiana vs Iowa spread: Iowa -5
- Indiana vs Iowa over/under: 166.5 points
- Indiana vs Iowa moneyline: Iowa -220, Indiana +180
- Indiana vs Iowa best bet: PASS | Lean Iowa ATS or Iowa ML as Parlay Piece
Indiana vs Iowa Betting Preview & Key Players To Watch
I can’t believe Iowa won and covered against Nebraska after that end-of-game debacle.
The Hawkeyes took over in extra time and earned a much-needed Big Ten win, bringing their conference record back to 2-2.
Does that mean they’re in for a letdown against Indiana? Maybe.
But the Hoosiers are also due for a letdown after five consecutive wins against middling teams, with four coming at home and one being a semi-away contest. This is Indiana’s first true road game since losing to Nebraska, and it’s worth mentioning that the Hoosiers rank 336th nationally in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric.
I think Indiana is due for some slight negative regression on defense, considering Big Ten opponents have shot only 27% from 3 through five conference games. Iowa is an elite spacing-and-shooting team whose secondary actions could easily bring that looming regression.
I also think Iowa can exploit Indiana’s questionable transition defense (10 fast-break PPG, 40th percentile), given almost all Fran McCaffery teams are elite running in the open court (17 fast-break PPG, 98th percentile).
The problem for the Hawkeyes comes on the other end.
I have issues with the Hoosiers’ offense, which I think is poorly run by Mike Woodson, who refuses to adapt to modern basketball by playing almost exclusively through the post while not providing enough floor spacing to keep the lanes open.
That said, Oumar Ballo and the Hoosiers could destroy Iowa’s lifeless interior defense, which allows a whopping 42 paint points per game (fifth-most nationally). While he’s a decent shot-blocker, Owen Freeman is a turnstile at the five, especially when defending post-up sets (1.35 PPP allowed, second percentile).
These two teams could score at will. But the total is way too high to consider an over.
Ultimately, this is a game where Iowa can trade 2s for 3s in a comfortable Big Ten home win.
As I often mention on these virtual pages, Big Ten home court is always worth playing.
There are some injuries to monitor. I don’t know if Indiana’s Malik Reneau or Iowa’s Drew Thelwell will suit up.
There’s some chatter that the Hoosiers are “better” when replacing Reneau with Luke Goode, who can space the floor better, and I don’t wholly disagree.
Meanwhile, I’m reasonably sure Thelwell’s injury hurts Iowa’s guard depth.
So, the injury issues give me pause, and I don’t adore the situational spot for either squad.
I also don’t project much value on either side at the current number, and the high-variance nature of Iowa’s offense could lead to a blowout win or a blowout loss.
If I felt compelled to bet on this game, I’d lay the points with Iowa. I’d probably feel more comfortable using the Iowa moneyline as a parlay piece.
