The Iowa Hawkeyes play the Illinois Fighting Illini in the Elite 8 of the NCAA Tournament in Houston, Texas, on Saturday, March 28. Tip-off is set for 6:09 p.m. ET on TBS.
Illinois is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -295. Meanwhile, Iowa is the underdog at +7.5 with a moneyline of +240. The over/under sits at 138.5 total points.
Here’s my Iowa vs. Illinois prediction and college basketball picks for Saturday, March 28.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini Predictions, Pick
My Pick: Illinois -6.5
My Iowa vs Illinois best bet is on the Illini to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa vs Illinois Odds, Lines
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 138 -110o / -110u | +250 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 138 -110o / -110u | -325 |
- Iowa vs Illinois Spread: Illinois -7.5, Iowa +7.5
- Iowa vs Illinois Over/Under: 138 Total Points
- Iowa vs Illinois Moneyline: Iowa ML +250, Illinois ML -325
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Iowa vs Illinois Preview
Iowa Hawkeyes: Still Dancing
Iowa players never panicked, hung their heads or wilted under the pressure when faced with a hot shooting Nebraska team.
Despite trailing by 10 points on three different occasions in the first half and not holding its first lead until 2:10 remaining, Iowa remained in full control of the pace and stayed true to what got this team to this point in the NCAA Tournament.
Several stout defensive sequences fueled a 15-6 run over the final six minutes, and Iowa was able to advance to the Elite 8 in Ben McCollum’s first season in Iowa City.
Bennett Stirtz scored 20 points, and Tate Sage had a season-high 19, including four deep shots for the Hawkeyes. The Hawkeyes shot the ball with confidence and buried 13 triples as a team, while shooting 83% from the foul line.
Alvaro Folgueiras and Cooper Koch both scored in double figures, and despite the poor shooting early, Iowa ended with an extremely efficient 1.27 points per possession.
Illinois is going to provide some challenges for this offense, as it did in the first meeting, a six-point road win for the Illini. Iowa is going to have to limit turnovers and make open shots when they're there for the taking.
The Iowa defense played well once again despite giving up 46 first-half points. Nebraska was securing offensive rebounds and procuring second-chance opportunities against Iowa, but the deep shots were being contested.
I thought the Hawkeyes did a great job of being in position to defend while avoiding fouling.
This defense is going to get tested by Illinois in similar ways, and I'll be interested to see if the Hawkeyes can defend with a little more efficiency than they did in the first meeting.
Illinois Fighting Illini: Dangerous 3-Seed
Illinois has looked the part in its first three NCAA Tournament games, with quick dispatches of Penn and VCU in the opening two rounds, followed by a stellar defensive effort in a 10-point victory over Houston.
This is a dangerous bunch.
The Illini made Houston very uncomfortable on the offensive end, as the Cougars committed 11 turnovers and shot just two foul shots. The mid-range jumpers weren’t falling for Houston and a 20-2 run early in the second half was insurmountable.
The defense is playing exquisite basketball right now and the shooters have found their stroke.
The offense went through some stretches against Houston where the shots weren’t falling and the operation looked choppy, but second-half adjustments allowed the big run and Illinois showed it was very comfortable playing a defensive slog.
Andrej Stojakovic and Keaton Wagler each scored 13 for the Illini, while David Mirkovic had 14 to lead Illinois.
Securing offensive rebounds and second-chance opportunities was so critical for Illinois to gain separation, and you could just see the deflated nature of the Houston bench when offensive rebounds were snatched in.
Defensively, Illinois played exceptional basketball against a very athletic Houston team. The Illini forced the Cougars away from the rim and into the mid-range while allowing just two free throws and limiting the 3-point production from the outside.
Illinois has an excellent outside defense defending the arc and is the best team in the country at defending without fouling. Iowa is going to have to be methodical on the offensive end and hit shots when the shooters come open to stay in this game.
Iowa vs Illinois Pick, Best Bet
This line opened with Illinois listed as a 4.5-point favorite and was quickly bet up to -6.5, where it sits now. I have to agree with that.
The Illini have too many shooters and this is such a confident group right now. The way this defense has been burying its opponents has been something to watch during this NCAA Tournament.
The Iowa offense isn't going to procure trips to the foul line and I worry about whether the Hawkeyes can make enough shots here to stay within this short number.
Illinois has been playing extremely well offensively, and I would expect the Illini to get good looks here. Seven players have at least 100 3-point attempts this season, as Illinois has shot 53% of its shots from outside the arc since entering league play.
Even off of misses, Illinois has done really well to secure offensive rebounds, and we saw firsthand that the second-chance opportunities were back breakers against Houston.
I expect Illinois to win the “shot-volume” metric and this will be a difference in the second half here.
Iowa is so well coached and the offense has done well to play within the confines of the system. This team can't get down big here and feel good about mounting a comeback; it's just too difficult against Illinois, which was able to handle the athleticism of VCU and Houston with relative ease.
The pace is going to keep this one close for a while, but I expect the Illini defense to step up and force Iowa into contested misses.
Illinois has made big runs in each of its first three NCAA Tournament games, and that will be the difference here in the late stages of the second half. Lay it.
My Pick: Illinois -6.5
