The Louisville Cardinals take on the SMU in Dallas, TX. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
SMU is favored by 2 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. The total is set at 158.5 points.
Here’s my Louisville vs. SMU predictions and college basketball picks for January 21, 2025.
Louisville vs SMU Prediction
My Pick: Louisville ML +105 (Play to -120)
My Louisville vs SMU best bet is on the Cardinals moneyline, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Louisville vs SMU Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -115 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -105 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
- Louisville vs SMU spread: SMU -2
- Louisville vs SMU over/under: 158.5 points
- Louisville vs SMU moneyline: SMU -130, Louisville +110
- Louisville vs SMU best bet: Louisville ML +105 (Play to -120)
My Louisville vs SMU College Basketball Betting Preview
Louisville Basketball
Louisville has endured fairly difficult circumstances to position itself with a 14-5 record and 6-1 start in ACC play.
By all accounts, losing two pivotal rotation players (Kasean Pryor and Koren Johnson) could’ve spelled the end for some teams years. Instead, Pat Kelsey is using the injuries as fuel for Louisville to break a four-year NCAA Tournament drought.
I’m buying even more stock in Louisville, as it could be in for some positive shooting regression. The Kelsey formula is playing fast and shooting a ton of 3s. This year's team is no different (it attempts 3s at a 50.7% clip), but Aussie sniper Reyne Smith is the only Cardinal shooting above 35% from downtown.
The likely positive regression candidates are transfers Chucky Hepburn — who’s the Cards' best player — and Terrence Edwards Jr.
During his three years at Wisconsin, Hepburn shot around 36% from 3. Meanwhile, Edwards shot 34% for James Madison last year and is at 27% this year.
Edwards unlocking that shooting would be a huge key for this handicap.
Defensively, Louisville is good enough to hold firm versus SMU. The only glaring weakness in its profile is defending the arc, as opponents shoot a jarring 35% from 3.
The good thing is Hepburn is a lockdown defender and he should contain SMU’s go-to guard, Boopie Miller.
SMU Basketball
I’m still trying to figure out SMU. Andy Enfield is having a hugely successful season in year one in Dallas, coming into this game at 14-4 and 5-2 in ACC play.
I haven’t been blown away by SMU, though. The win by 40 over Miami doesn’t move me, it needed a prayer to beat Virginia for a second time and it topped Boston College and Georgia Tech.
The best win for SMU is over KenPom’s No. 67-ranked LSU Tigers and the No. 87-ranked Washington State Cougars.
They haven’t beaten anybody of Louisville’s caliber.
I don’t think that’ll change yet, either. The Mustangs' defense is a train wreck. They rank 77th in defensive efficiency, and opponents shoot 34% from 3, which is perfect for Louisville.
Stopping teams from scoring inside isn’t a problem — they hold their opponents to 45% from 2 — and the presence of 7-foot-2 big man Samet Yigitoglu helps in that regard.
The strength of Coach Enfield’s team is unquestionably on the offensive end, as it boasts a top-25 ranking in offensive efficiency.
Similar to Louisville, SMU will look to push the pace, but it doesn’t hunt for 3s, a differentiator between the two foes. It’s not because the Mustangs can’t shoot, though. They hit 38% from 3, albeit on limited volume.
The Stangs rely on shot-creation and playmaking from the aforementioned Miller, who leads the team with 14.2 points and six assists per game.
Helping him is sharpshooter Chuck Harris, versatile four-man Matt Cross and former Tennessee Vol B.J. Edwards. Those four average double-digit points, while three others tally eight-plus points per game.
Louisville vs. SMU Betting Analysis
I don’t value SMU as a top-40 team in the country.
That puts the Mustangs in the NCAA Tournament discussion, and that level hasn’t been a regular sight from them.
Conversely, playing in hostile road environments hasn’t scared Louisville.
It owns four road wins in ACC play, including a win over Florida State and Pittsburgh, two teams near SMU’s caliber.
