The Marquette Golden Eagles take on the Dayton Flyers in Dayton, OH, on Saturday. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Marquette is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -110. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here are my Marquette vs. Dayton predictions and college basketball picks for December 14, 2024.
Marquette vs Dayton Prediction
My Pick: Dayton +1.5 (Play to PK)
My Marquette vs Dayton best bet is on the Flyers moneyline, with the best odds currently available at ESPNBet. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Marquette vs Dayton Odds, Lines, Pick
| Marquette Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 148.5 -115o / -105u | -112 |
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 148.5 -115o / -105u | -108 |
- Marquette vs Dayton spread: Marquette -1
- Marquette vs Dayton over/under: 148.5 points
- Marquette vs Dayton moneyline: Marquette -112, Dayton -108
- Marquette vs Dayton best bet: Dayton +1.5 (Play to PK)
My Marquette vs Dayton College Basketball Betting Preview
These are two of the nation’s best spread pick-and-roll offenses run by two of the nation’s best ball-screen initiators. Marquette’s Kam Jones and Dayton’s Malachi Smith are two of nine D-I players with an assist rate of over 40%.
Marquette’s five-out offense often looks unstoppable when forwards Ben Gold and David Joplin are inverting the court and canning shots from behind the arc. They open lanes for Jones to drive-and-score, attack-and-kick or pick-and-pop.
Meanwhile, Dayton’s Nate Santos and Enoch Cheeks are two elite spot-up shooters on the wing, opening the lane for Smith to drive-and-score or attack-and-kick to the corners.
So, which defense is better prepared to handle the opposing attack?
Marquette head coach Shaka Smart sends relentless pressure at opposing ball-handlers, blitzing ball-screens and trapping like crazy.
But if you can handle the pressure, you can crush Marquette with weak-side cuts and spot-up shooters.
Dayton should be able to handle the attack, given Smith spearheads an offense that ranks in the top 10 nationally in turnover rate and the top 50 in PPP against press (1.01). The Flyers should then have ample opportunity to hit Santos and Cheeks for 3s or Zed Key and Amael L’Etang on rim runs.
Marquette’s rim defense has been much better than Dayton’s on paper, but the Golden Eagles have been much worse at rim denial, so I suspect some regression could hit. While they're allowing 1.08 points per shot at the rim, ShotQuality projects that mark closer to 1.20 based on the “quality” of attempts allowed.
Iowa State showed us just how weak Marquette's rim defense is by generating 12 points on seven cutting sets, suitable for a ludicrous 1.72 PPP. I'm banking on Dayton doing something similar.
Conversely, Dayton is the much better jump-shot denial defense, ranking in the top 100 in 3-point rate allowed and even better in catch-and-shoot rate allowed. That bodes well against Marquette’s five-out attack.
I like the matchup for Dayton, and I think it's an OK time to sell Marquette following its impressive 9-1 start to the year — Jones is earning Wooden Hype, which means the Golden Eagles are likely a tad overvalued. They also could be looking ahead to Big East play starting next Wednesday (home vs. Butler).
I think it’s also worth mentioning the common opponent.
Marquette surged in the second half against Iowa State, tying up the game at 61 with a 10-0 run. But the Golden Eagles immediately gave up a 17-2 run afterward and lost by 11 — they trailed by double-digits for most of the game.
Meanwhile, Dayton led Iowa State by nine at one point and kept the game tight for 40 minutes in a five-point loss.
Sure, Marquette had to play in Ames while Dayton got the ‘Clones on a neutral court. But the Flyers get home-court advantage in this one. And they absolutely need the Quad 1 win more, given they won’t get many more opportunities in A-10 play.
