The Michigan State Spartans take on the Indiana Hoosiers in Bloomington, Indiana, on Sunday, March 1. Tip-off is set for 3:45 p.m. ET on CBS.
Michigan State is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -155. Indiana, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +130 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 144.5 total points.
Here’s my Michigan State vs. Indiana prediction and college basketball picks for Sunday, March 1.
Michigan State vs Indiana Spread, Total, Pick
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
My Pick: Lamar Wilkerson Over 21.5 Points -112
My Michigan State vs Indiana best bet is on Lamar Wilkerson's points prop. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan State vs Indiana Betting Prediction
Michigan State Basketball
The nation’s 13th-ranked Spartans head into Sunday's Big Ten clash after winning their biggest game of the season on the road over Matt Painter’s Boilermakers at Mackey Arena.
Michigan State currently sits tied for second in the Big Ten standings, with Illinois and Nebraska also posting 13-4 records in Big Ten play this season.
Tom Izzo’s bunch improved to 23-5 on the season after that victory, and marked the first time since 2014 that Michigan State prevailed over Purdue in West Lafayette.
The Spartans are in prime form heading into Izzo’s favorite month of the year. In over 30 seasons at the helm as Michigan State’s head coach, Izzo has won an incredible 70% of his games in the month of March, posting a 58-25 record during that span.
Michigan State is well on its way to making its 28th NCAA Tournament appearance in Izzo’s last 29 seasons coaching in East Lansing. The Spartan head coach has led his squad to the Final Four seven-times over the last three decades.
Leading the charge for Michigan State’s offense is its 6-foot-1 Sophomore point guard, Jeremy Fears Jr. He's averaging an impressive 15 points and 9.1 assists per game.
Fears has been very effective on both ends of the floor and is the floor general for a Michigan State offense that scores over 77 points per contest. As we wind down the regular season, the Spartans rank in the top 35 in college basketball in offensive efficiency rating, per KenPom.
Alongside Fears, the uber-athletic Coen Carr has also been playing extremely well, scoring over 11 points per game this season. The 6-foot-6 Junior guard is among the most athletic players in the country and is a lockdown defender on the other end of the floor.
Per usual, Michigan State’s recent success can be attributed to its spectacular defensive efforts, with the Spartans having just held an explosive Purdue offense to under 75 points on its home floor. Izzo’s defense is allowing just 66 points per game this season.
The Spartans' defensive frontcourt boasts a ton of size and physicality, with both Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper serving as elite rim protectors inside the paint. According to Haslametrics, Michigan State has the nation's sixth-most efficient defense.
Izzo’s Spartans are slowly gaining momentum prior to the end of their regular season schedule, as Michigan State looks to win its fourth consecutive game as they head on the road to Bloomington on Sunday afternoon for a matchup with Indiana.
Indiana Basketball
In what initially looked to be a fantastic season for the Hoosiers in 2026, with the team winning its first seven games, Indiana finds itself on a 3-game skid ahead of Sunday’s matchup with Michigan State.
The Hoosiers post a 17-11 overall record and rank tenth in the Big Ten standings, having won just eight of the team's 17 conference games thus far.
For an Indiana team that has likely slipped below the bubble, losing four of its past six games, Sunday's matchup with the Spartans is an absolute must-win if the Hoosiers are to have any shot at an at-large bid prior to the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
After making the “Big Dance” in two of the four seasons in the Mike Woodson-era, the Hoosiers have a lot of work to do in head coach Darian DeVries’ first season in Bloomington. Indiana has failed to make the NCAA Tournament in its past two seasons.
Senior guard Lamar Wilkerson is having an unbelievable year for a Hoosier bunch desperate for offensive production. Wilkerson is averaging a remarkable 21 points per game in his final collegiate season, alongside four rebounds and three assists.
Wilkerson is in his first season with Indiana after playing his first three collegiate years at Sam Houston. The senior is making a tremendous impact on both ends of the floor, and is clearly the primary scoring option for a Hoosier bunch that has actually had solid production from its guards in 2026.
Alongside Wilkerson, 6-foot-7 senior guard Tucker DeVries is having a solid year of his own, scoring nearly 14 points per game this season.
After playing his first three seasons for Drake and West Virginia, Tucker followed his father to Bloomington after Darian Devries accepted the head coaching position this past offseason.
The Hoosier backcourt leads an Indiana offense scoring 79 points per game this season, ranking 30th in the country in offensive efficiency, per KenPom.
On the other end of the floor, Devries’ defense is allowing just over 70 points of offense to its opponents in 2026, maintaining a solid +9 scoring margin this season.
While Indiana’s frontcourt has been dreadful offensively, the Hoosier forwards have made more of an impact on its interior defense.
Senior Reed Bailey has been a stellar interior defender, making it difficult for opposing forwards to find open looks near the basket. Bailey is the most impressive defender on an Indiana defense that ranks just outside the top-50 nationally in defensive efficiency.
It is now or never for the Hoosiers, but Devries’ bunch has a great opportunity to reverse its fortune on Sunday afternoon, matched up with a Michigan State team fresh off its biggest win of the season.
If Indiana is to pick up a top-15 Quad-I victory on the first day of March, it will be a major confidence-booster for a team that concludes its regular season with two winnable matchups versus the likes of Minnesota and Ohio State.
Michigan State vs. Indiana Betting Analysis
Sunday's Big Ten contest features two teams heading in completely opposite directions, with the Hoosiers having dropped three in a row, and Izzo’s Spartans riding the momentum of their biggest victory in 2026.
While Indiana has been horrific on the road this season, it has had several excellent performances at the comfort of its home floor at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, having defeated both Wisconsin and Purdue in Bloomington.
From a betting perspective, while it certainly looks like a prime bounce-back spot for the Hoosiers, desperate for a home victory on a three-game skid, it's tough to fade an Izzo-led team in March, especially considering how impressive it looked on Thursday in its remarkable upset victory over Purdue at its own Mackey Arena.
Instead, I will be taking a unique approach to betting on Sunday afternoon’s Big Ten affair, targeting the Hoosiers' leading scorer in the player prop market.
While Michigan State's defense is a tough cookie to crack, the Spartans do allow a ton of triples, ranking 346th nationally in 3-point rate allowed (46%). That should give the Hoosiers' deadly sharp-shooter plenty of opportunities to stack points.
My Pick: Lamar Wilkerson Over 21.5 Points -112
