The Michigan Wolverines take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in New York, NY. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Michigan is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. The total is set at 146 points.
Here are my Michigan vs. Arkansas predictions and college basketball picks for December 10, 2024.
Michigan vs Arkansas Prediction
My Pick: Michigan -4.5
My Michigan vs Arkansas best bet is on the Wolverines spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan vs Arkansas Odds, Spread, Pick
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 147.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 147.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
- Michigan vs Arkansas spread: Michigan -4
- Michigan vs Arkansas over/under: 147.5 points
- Michigan vs Arkansas moneyline: Michigan -180, Arkansas +150
- Michigan vs Arkansas best bet: Michigan -4.5
My Michigan vs Arkansas College Basketball Betting Preview
Michigan Basketball
With an 8-1 start, Michigan has already matched its win total from last season.
First-year head coach Dusty May remade the roster with an influx of transfers, and the Wolverines now boast one of the deepest rosters in the country.
Four players (Roddy Gayle Jr., Tre Donaldson, Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin) are averaging in double figures, while Nimari Burnett, Will Tschetter and Sam Walters are capable of producing 15-20 points on any given night.
However, all the new and moving pieces have also caused some growing pains. Michigan is averaging 15.1 turnovers per game while ranking 335th in turnover percentage.
Despite ranking in the top 25 in several offensive categories — such as 2-point field goal percentage, effective field goal percentage and turnover percentage — the Wolverines' turnover woes are the main thing preventing this from being a top-25 offense.
They may already have an elite defense, though.
Michigan ranks 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency and eighth in both effective field goal percentage defense and 2-point percentage defense. Its seven-footers — Wolf and Goldin — have formed an imposing duo on the interior, as each is averaging nearly two blocks per game.
Michigan has also held its opponents to 29% from behind the arc.
Additionally, it has held seven of its nine opponents to 67 points or less, including four games against high-major teams.
Arkansas Basketball
Like May, John Calipari has flipped over Arkansas' roster, mixing the portal with another heralded recruiting class.
Adou Thiero has more than doubled his scoring from last season, averaging 18 points per game to go along with 6.1 rebounds and 2.1 assists while shooting 61% from the field.
Five-star guard Boogie Fland is averaging 15 points, 5.2 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game and is shooting 40% from 3.
Speaking of 3s, sophomore center Zvonimir Ivisic has knocked down three triples in each of his last three games and enters the matchup shooting 57% from deep. His presence will pull one of Wolf or Goldin away from the basket, opening up driving lanes.
Another X-factor to keep an eye on for the Razorbacks is Johnell Davis, who played with Goldin and for May at Florida Atlantic. The senior is averaging just 9.3 points per game this season, but he is capable of a big night against a familiar system (he averaged 18.2 points per game for FAU last season).
Arkansas enters the matchup ranking just 75th in adjusted offensive efficiency but 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency. It does a great job of keeping opponents off the offensive glass, ranking eighth nationally in defensive rebounding percentage.
It should have an advantage in that area against the Wolverines.
Michigan vs. Arkansas Betting Analysis
Two stats that may decide this matchup are points in the paint and turnovers.
While Arkansas' offense is 27th in 2-point percentage field goal, scoring around the rim against Wolf and Goldin will be difficult.
Meanwhile, while Michigan is averaging over 15 turnovers per game, Arkansas is averaging 12 per game itself.
If Michigan can keep its turnovers to a minimum, it should find more success in this matchup. Michigan has been the more efficient team on both sides of the floor this season and has performed better against similar competition.
While Arkansas is 7-2 thus far, both losses have come in its only two games against KenPom top-25 teams, losing to Baylor by five and to Illinois by 13 points.
It also needed to rally against a Miami team that does not look very strong this season.
With that in mind, I will be backing the Wolverines to win by five points or more.
