The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Texas A&M Aggies in College Station, Texas. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Texas A&M is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a price of 80 cents to win and the total set at 159.5 points on Fanatics Markets.
Here’s my Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M predictions and college basketball picks for January 21, 2026.
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M Prediction
My Pick: Mississippi State +7.5
My Mississippi State vs Texas A&M best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M Odds
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Mississippi State vs Texas A&M College Basketball Betting Preview
Mississippi State Basketball
Mississippi State has been a model of consistency during Chris Jans’ tenure, winning exactly 21 games while losing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in each of his first three seasons. Those trends look to be coming to an end this season, as the Bulldogs are 10-8 overall and 2-3 in SEC play.
The Bulldogs have lost three straight games, getting blown out by Kentucky and Alabama before dropping a one-point home loss to rival Ole Miss on Saturday.
It speaks to how historically deep this league is that the Bulldogs are last in the conference in the metrics but still sit at 83rd nationally on KenPom.
Jans is a defensive-minded coach, and the Bulldogs have been solid on that end. Through the first five games of league play, this is the fifth-best defense in the SEC.
Josh Hubbard is an explosive scorer, ranking sixth nationally in points per game at 22.3, which gives Mississippi State a fighter’s chance on any given night. Jayden Epps is averaging 15.5 points per game and gives the Bulldogs another guard with self-creation pop.
However, this team has really struggled to find offense outside of those two, and both guards are shooting under 42.2% from the field.
Texas A&M Basketball
Bucky Ball is in full effect in College Station. The Aggies have been one of the best stories in college basketball this month, as first-year head coach Bucky McMillan has his group off to a 4-1 start in the SEC. A&M is 14-4 on the season and hasn't lost a game in regulation in over two months.
The Aggies play a super up-tempo style, ranking 12th-fastest in the country. McMillan deploys a 10-plus-man rotation, leaning heavily into four-guard small-ball lineups. This fits the scheme perfectly, as A&M is constantly pressuring full court, aggressively trapping to force turnovers and getting up a ton of 3s.
Not only does this group take a lot of 3s (30th in 3-point attempt rate), it also shoots it at a high level, connecting on 37% from deep this season. The Aggies have three bona fide snipers in Ruben Dominguez, Rylan Griffen and Pop Isaacs who are all drilling above 40% on high volume.
Dominguez has hit four or more 3s in all but one of A&M’s SEC games. He's also been an excellent decision-maker, with just four turnovers all season.
6-foot-8 Rashuan Agee has been fantastic functioning as the small-ball five and makes up for his lack of height with strength and elite rebounding.
Defensively, due to the lack of size and constant pressure, this team is all about creating havoc and forcing turnovers. The Aggies are last in the SEC in defensive rebounding rate, but they make up for it by leading the league in turnover rate forced.
It's a unique style of play, but one thing is certain: It's a completely different type of game when you play A&M, and it makes teams uncomfortable.
Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M Betting Analysis
Texas A&M is on a roll right now, and playing Mississippi State at home is a must-win game for every SEC team right now. This league is ridiculously loaded, and playing the bottom-tier squads in your own building is the easiest it'll get.
The Aggies are definitely the better team playing better basketball, but I'm opting to take the points here with the Bulldogs.
Mississippi State is fourth in the SEC in taking care of the basketball, and having two experienced, quick point guards out there in Epps and Hubbard should help the Bulldogs break the pressure. Plus, Mississippi State is holding opponents to 30% shooting from deep, 34th best in the country.
Anything can happen with Bucky Ball, but I like the road dogs' chances of keeping this one close. This is a desperate team coming off of three losses, and it's already proven it can win on the road after its victory at Texas a few weeks back.
My Pick: Mississippi State +7.5 (Play to +6.5)
