The Monmouth Hawks take on the Stony Brook Seawolves in Stony Brook, NY. Tip-off is set for 5 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Monmouth is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -134. The total is set at 143.5 points.
Here are my Monmouth vs. Stony Brook predictions and college basketball picks for February 13, 2025.
Monmouth vs Stony Brook Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean Stony Brook ATS
My Monmouth vs Stony Brook best bet is on the Seawolves spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Monmouth vs Stony Brook Odds, Lines
| Monmouth Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -106 | 143.5 -110 / -110 | -134 |
| Stony Brook Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -114 | 143.5 -110 / -110 | +112 |
- Monmouth vs Stony Brook spread: Monmouth -2.5
- Monmouth vs Stony Brook over/under: 143.5 points
- Monmouth vs Stony Brook moneyline: Monmouth -134, Stony Brook +112
- Monmouth vs Stony Brook best bet: PASS | Lean Stony Brook ATS
My Monmouth vs Stony Brook NCAAB Betting Preview
After leaving the America East, Stony Brook has never fully acclimated to the CAA. Geno Ford’s squad put together an inspired late-season run to the conference tournament title game at the end of last year, but the Seawolves went 6-12 in their inaugural year and are currently 2-8.
They just picked up a huge road win over Hofstra on Saturday, but that might put them in a letdown spot at home against Monmouth on Thursday, especially given the Hawks are looking for a bounce-back win after losing a tough one to league-leading Towson on Saturday.
Monmouth is trending up, as it pieced together a three-game win streak before the Towson loss. Of note, this is the first game of a three-leg road trip for the Hawks.
Monmouth destroyed Stony Brook in the first head-to-head meeting, with the Hawks winning by 22 at home. However, that result can be attributed to shooting variance. The Hawks shot 10-for-19 (53%) from 3, while the Seawolves shot 3-for-20 (15%).
For what it’s worth, ShotQuality projected that game as an analytically expected win for the Wolves based on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed.
These two teams will live on the offensive boards, and neither cleans the glass very well. They combined for 41 second-chance points in the first matchup, but I think this matchup is a wash.
The biggest schematic advantage for either team will be Monmouth’s dribble hand-off and isolation sets against Stony Brook’s dribble handoff/isolation defense.
The Hawks scored a combined 19 points on 13 dribble handoff/isolation sets in the first matchup (1.46 PPP, per Synergy), and I think that’s repeatable given the Seawolves’ lackluster dribble handoff defense (1.07 PPP allowed, fifth percentile, per Synergy).
Stony Brook will work inside-out on the other end of the court, attacking the rim and running post-up sets on the interior while running off-ball screening sets on the perimeter.
Much of the offense will be run through Ben Wight, who averages nine points and two assists per game working out of the post, but the Seawolves ultimately rank last in the league in paint points per game (25, per CBB Analytics).
Monmouth is a solid post-up defense (.80 PPP allowed, 74th percentile, per Synergy), but the Hawks struggle to defend perimeter actions (.97 off-ball screen PPP allowed, 36th percentile, per Synergy).
The key to this game is if Stony Brook makes those inside-out 3s in the rematch. CJ Luster II is an elite marksman (1.17 off-ball screen PPP, 41% shooter from 3) who went 1-for-6 from deep in the first matchup.
I don't know if that'll happen, and I don’t think I’ll end up betting on this game.
However, if I had to, I’d bank on Stony Brook seeing some key positive regression in the rematch.
Monmouth doesn’t play well on the road, ranking 321st in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric.
Meanwhile, the Seawolves have been playing much better of late, covering the spread in seven of their last 10 games despite losing most.
