The NC State Wolfpack take on the Louisville Cardinals in Louisville, KY. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Louisville is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -310. The total is set at 161.5 points.
Here’s my NC State vs. Louisville prediction and college basketball picks for February 9, 2026.
NC State Wolfpack vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, Picks
My Pick: NC State +6.5 (Play to +4.5)
My NC State vs Louisville best bet is on the Wolfpack to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
NC State vs. Louisville Odds, Lines
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 161.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 161.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
- NC State vs Louisville Spread: Louisville -6.5, NC State +6.5
- NC State vs Louisville Over/Under: 161.5 Total Points
- NC State vs Louisville Moneyline: NC State ML +225, Louisville ML -275
NC State vs Louisville Preview
NC State Wolfpack
The calendar flipping to January was a pleasant sight for NC State. The Wolfpack started the season slowly, but the Will Wade era has been as good as expected in Raleigh.
Since January 1, NC State is seventh in offensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik.
Two areas stand out for the Wolfpack: They turn the ball over just 12% of the time (10th-lowest in America) and they shoot 42% from deep (second nationally).
The question is, can NC State shoot it that well moving forward? Maybe not 42%, but I think NC State will remain a top-10 offense in the country.
The key is point guard Quadir Copeland, who looks like an All-ACC guy. Copeland averages 14 points and seven assists per game, and he tossed 10+ dimes in three straight games. His dynamism opens up NC State's offense. He's crafty at 6-foot-6, and the fact that he can drive and make plays as a scorer opens up the Pack's shooting.
If opponents crash on the drives, Copeland can dish to three 40+% shooters. That trio of marksmen consists of Darrion Williams, Paul McNeil Jr. and Tre Holloman. McNeil is a real microwave type and a true ceiling-riser for the Pack.
On the defensive end, NC State has to shore up its perimeter defense. Making 3s is nice, but it won't matter as much if Louisville drains them, too.
The Pack surrender 34% shooting to teams from deep and 37% since January. NC State forces turnovers at a 19% rate, but that's the only positive of its defense.
Louisville Cardinals
Louisville will look to make NC State pay for its porous perimeter defense. Out of 365 Division I teams, Louisville takes the most 3s on a rate basis, letting it fly on 53% of its shots.
The top three scorers for Louisville are all looking to get buckets. Ryan Conwell leads the team in scoring with 18 points, but he's just 4-of-24 from deep in his last three games.
Similarly, Mikel Brown Jr. has been super streaky upon his return from injury. In a three-game span against Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Duke, Brown went 4-for-33 shooting. He also had a stretch of 14-for-25 shooting against Virginia Tech and SMU.
The streaky play from Conwell and Brown will dictate a lot of what happens for Louisville in a game like this.
That puts into context why Louisville is shooting just 32% from downtown since Jan. 1.
For Louisville to win and cover, it'll have to dominate from inside the arc on both ends.
The Cardinals' rim defense is terrific, holding teams to 45% shooting from 2-point range (eighth nationally). On the flip side, Louisville is very effective at scoring inside, shooting 60% on 2s (ninth nationally).
Big man Sananda Fru is a huge part of the 2-point dominance. He leads the country in shooting from inside the arc (76%). The floor spacing creates a lot of looks for Fru, and he's an elite lob-catcher.
Similar to NC State, Louisville struggles to defend the arc, allowing opponents to shoot 37% from deep since January 1.
If NC State stays hot, that could be a problem.
NC State vs Louisville NCAAB Pick to Bet
I'm taking the points with NC State. I have trouble trusting this Louisville team due to Conwell and Brown's streaky play.
Plus, NC State is awesome on the road. The Pack have six ACC road wins, including at Clemson and SMU. Their elite shooting has traveled everywhere in the ACC, and I think it keeps them to within two possessions here.
Finally, our Action PRO projections have this line close to +5 rather than the 6.5 number that it currently sits at (at the time of writing). That gives us a PRO grade of a B-, creating nice value on this prediction.
My Pick: NC State +6.5 (Play to +4.5)
