Charleston vs Alabama College Basketball Odds
| Charleston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 173 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 173 -110o / -110u | -425 |
I highly suggest turning your eyes in another direction if you hate fun because this Charleston-Alabama game could be the most fun Round of 64 game. Even the bookmakers know it'll be fun. This game has the highest pregame total — 173.5 — in an NCAA Tournament game since 1999.
Let's dive into what should be a high-scoring affair in our Charleston vs. Alabama preview and pick.
Charleston Cougars
Charleston came close to beating San Diego State in last year's Round of 64 until the Aztecs' late run put the game on ice. I'm sure that devastating loss hasn't left Pat Kelsey's mind in the past 12 months. But with a win Wednesday, he can make that loss a distant memory.
Charleston is very similar, but still different than Alabama. By that, I mean the Cougars also shoot 3s on 47% of field-goal attempts while playing at a fast tempo. The difference? You have no clue where the scoring is coming from game to game. Charleston plays 10 players who average 4+ points, and nobody averages more than 12 points per game.
Reyne Smith and Ante Brzovic are the most important players in Kelsey's offense. Brzovic is an uber-skilled five-man who can score inside and out, while Smith can shoot the leather off the ball. Smith came up clutch in the CAA title game, but he's super streaky and isn't impactful if he's not shooting 3s.
If you think Alabama's defense is bad, take a second to take in just how bad Charleston's defense is. The Cougars rank 174th nationally in defensive efficiency, and they allowed 90 points to FAU — the lone top-50 KenPom opponent on their schedule.
I'm worried how Smith and CJ Fulton — two smaller guards — will contain the dribble-drive ability of Alabama's guards. I don't think they have the quickness to slow down the dynamic duo from Tuscaloosa.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Winning in March is all about matchups and getting hot at the right time. Sadly, Alabama isn't benefitting from either of those two things. The Crimson Tide lost three of their last four games, allowing 102 and 105 points in two of the three losses. Nate Oats isn't known for coaching elite defensive teams, but this year's Alabama squad truly can't defend at all.
The Crimson Tide have real issues staying in front of opponents, which leads to constant fouling (320th nationally in free throws allowed), and they can't stop inside scoring. It's just hard to win games in the SEC with two diminutive point guards who don't defend.
Alabama's best team in the Oats era, with Herb Jones, ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency. They lost that defensive success when Jones went to the pros, and Oats never found a suitable replacement.
All-SEC selection Mark Sears leads Alabama's third-ranked offensive unit, per KenPom. Sears is averaging 21.1 points, 4.4 rebounds and four assists this year. Oats brought Sears in from Ohio two years ago to be a solid starting guard, and he's developed into the face of Alabama basketball.
The Crimson Tide want to score in one of two ways: shooting 3s (they are 16th in 3-point attempts) or driving to the basket.
That means Alabama relies on shooting, but Sears and Aaron Estrada want to drive to the hoop. Estrada is another impactful player for Alabama, averaging 13 points and four assists. While Estrada isn't an elite shooter, he's incredibly crafty and gets into the lane with a purpose.
Keep an eye on shooters Rylan Griffen and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. Both can easily catch fire from downtown, and Oats already labeled Wrightsell as one of the best shooters he's coached. It would be only fitting that Wrightsell makes a huge impact in his first tourney game at Alabama.
Charleston vs Alabama
Betting Prediction, Pick
I'm starting to believe Alabama is a bit undervalued. Yes, I get it. Alabama is dreadful on the defensive end and has looked terrible in the past month. I'm fully on board with the Crimson Tide being a quick out in the NCAA Tournament, but it shouldn't happen in this game.
Alabama punished mid-major teams, like Indiana State, during the nonconference slate, so Charleston shouldn't pose a real threat to sending the Crimson Tide packing early.
