The Round of 32 brought a lot of excitement and drama, but we are set for even more in the Sweet 16.
Read on for our NCAA Tournament Predictions and Sweet 16 picks.
NCAA Tournament Predictions & Sweet 16 Picks
Arkansas vs Arizona Pick
Darius Acuff has been putting on a show in recent weeks. Acuff has scored at least 24 points in each of the Razorbacks' last five games. Acuff looks like a future superstar in the NBA. This matchup is going to be a big test for him, and I’m looking forward to seeing how he does up against the best defense he has seen this season.
Arizona is first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Wildcats are the seventh-tallest team in the country, and Krivas is an excellent shot blocker. Arizona plays quickly, but they haven’t gotten enough credit during the year for how good they are on defense.
According to Haslametrics, Arizona is first in the nation in near-proximity defense. They aren’t letting opponents get to the basket and score. That makes this matchup a tough one for Arkansas.
Arkansas is 17th nationally in closest proximity to the hoop as far as their shot attempts from the floor. The Razorbacks are trying hard to get to the hoop.
Arkansas has faced two really weak frontcourt defenses in Hawaii and High Point in the first couple of rounds of the NCAA Tournament. This is likely to be a bit of a shock to the system.
Arizona’s offense does have an edge against the Razorbacks defense here, but Arizona has shown signs of slowing its tempo down of late. Four of their last five games have seen 68 possessions or fewer.
Sweet 16 unders are 38-20 when the spread is set at -6 or higher in the last 58 contests. Am I excited to bet an under with these two teams? No. I’m still going to do it, though, based on how much is on the line and how high the number is set.
Pick: Under 166.5 | Confidence Rating: B
St. John's vs Duke Prediction
The Duke Blue Devils haven’t been the same without Caleb Foster. Foster is doubtful for this game, and if he tries to play, I don’t think he could be the same player he was earlier in the year.
Duke has carried a very high turnover rate without Foster on the floor. They are turning the ball over on 18.4% of their offensive possessions since Foster went out. They had 17 turnovers last game against an aggressive TCU defense.
St. John’s will press and do everything they can to force turnovers here. Rick Pitino is one of the best college basketball coaches ever, and he knows the Johnnies need to turn over Duke to win this game.
Duke isn’t likely to have an easy time in the half-court offense either with Ejiofor patrolling the paint. The Blue Devils will get second-chance points at times in this one, but I don’t think the offensive sets will come easily at all.
St. John’s has had a clear trend of playing games at a slower tempo of late. Their offense is running the clock if they don’t get a quick runout in transition. Duke has been playing at a slow tempo the entire season. The Blue Devils are 281st nationally in overall tempo.
I think Pitino will have a great defensive game plan ready here. Duke is likely to turn it over quite a few times. The Blue Devils put up 81 points against TCU, but that number is misleading.
They trailed 40-38 with 16 minutes left. The wheels fell off for TCU after flagrants and technicals led to the game getting out of hand.
I think St. John’s will be more disciplined on defense.
Pick: Duke Team Total Under 74.5 | Confidence Rating: B+
