The Northwestern Wildcats take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on BTN.
Michigan State is favored by 13 points on the spread with a moneyline of -950. The total is set at 143.5 points.
Here’s my Northwestern vs. Michigan State prediction and college basketball picks for January 8, 2026.
Northwestern vs Michigan State Prediction
My Pick: Northwestern +10 or Better
My Northwestern vs Michigan State best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Northwestern vs. Michigan State Odds
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | +600 |
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | -950 |
Northwestern vs Michigan State College Basketball Betting Preview
Northwestern Basketball
You'd be hard pressed to find a team that's played better than its record indicates than Northwestern. KenPom's "luck" metric seeks to measure exactly that concept and places just four teams as being less lucky than Northwestern.
The Wildcats have lost six games this season by a total of 35 points, including just one double-figure defeat by 12 points at Wisconsin.
On top of the schedule luck, shooting luck hasn't helped the Wildcats either. Jayden Reid hit 39% from outside the arc in two years at South Florida, but he's made just 28% this season. Northwestern has made just 31.5% from deep and scores only 23.2% of its points from outside, 344th in the country.
The Wildcats have survived those shooting woes by being incredibly efficient with the ball and scoring inside the arc. Northwestern ranks in the top five nationally in avoiding both turnovers and blocked shots, with a top-10 assist rate.
Senior Nick Martinelli's growth into a top-end scorer has kept Northwestern afloat in games this season, but he needs help in the box score to convert some of these close calls to wins.
Michigan State Basketball
Surprise, surprise: Tom Izzo has a good team, built in the frontcourt and defensive end of the floor. Sparty ranks second nationally in defensive efficiency, blocking shots at the 7th best rate in the country.
Michigan State's defense prowess is aided by being one of the best rebounding teams in the sport. The Spartans are second in cleaning the defensive glass and grabbing the 12th-highest rate of their own misses in the country.
Success on the glass is a hallmark of an Izzo team, with this squad particularly successful in that area.
By controlling the glass, Michigan State maximizes its number of possessions. On offense, that allows Jeremy Fears Jr. to operate freely, leading to his 50.4% assist rate, second in the country.
Fears is flanked by scorers at every level. Izzo and Fears know where to find a mismatch on each possession and will exploit it as best they can.
Michigan State's efficient offense getting more possessions than its opponents — who are struggling to get good looks against a tight Sparty defense on the other end — makes perfect math for a long, successful season.
Northwestern vs. Michigan State Betting Analysis
Northwestern's luck needs to swing at a certain point. I don't want to make a habit out of predicting positive outcomes for opponents trotting into the Breslin Center in Lansing, but in this case, I think Northwestern can hang around and keep this game competitive.
Normally, that would make me wary of expecting shooting regression, but there's reason for belief. Michigan State's defense just faced 3-of-17 outside shooting from USC on Monday night.
That simply can't happen again, nor would you think Northwestern can hit only 26% from deep like it did on Saturday at Minnesota.
Both teams play on the slower side, with Northwestern forcing the longest average defensive possession in the country. If the Wildcats keep this game in the half-court, Michigan State isn't likely to break off a big run to break open a blowout.
I'm not crazy enough to expect an upset here, yet I think Northwestern can muck the game up and keep it tight toward the end.
My Pick: Northwestern +10 or Better
