The Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the Louisville Cardinals in Louisville, KY. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Louisville is favored by 17.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -3500. The total is set at 153 points.
Here’s my Notre Dame vs. Louisville predictions and college basketball picks for February 4, 2026.
Notre Dame vs Louisville Prediction
My Pick: Notre Dame +17.5 (Play to +16)
My Notre Dame vs Louisville best bet is on the Fighting Irish to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Notre Dame vs. Louisville Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -105 | 153 -110o / -110u | +1500 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -115 | 153 -110o / -110u | -3500 |
- Notre Dame vs Louisville spread: Louisville -17.5
- Notre Dame vs Louisville over/under: 153 points
- Notre Dame vs Louisville moneyline: Notre Dame +1500, Louisville -3500
Notre Dame vs Louisville College Basketball Betting Preview
Notre Dame Basketball
Year three hasn't gone according to plan for Micah Shrewsberry and Notre Dame.
The injury to star point guard Markus Burton certainly didn't help things, but regardless, the rest of the core of this group hasn't made big enough strides on either side of the floor.
Freshman guard Jalen Haralson has shown flashes of greatness, but in today's landscape of college basketball, if your best weapon is a freshman, and there aren't many other playmakers around him, it's going to be difficult to win consistently.
The Irish also lost big man Kebba Njie to a season-ending knee injury, which has put even more pressure on Carson Towt in the paint.
Towt is a heck of a rebounder, but he can't do it alone, and he's pretty limited offensively.
Notre Dame currently ranks 90th and 92nd in KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rankings, respectively, a sign of a team that doesn't particularly excel in any area on either side of the ball.
Braeden Shrewsberry and Cole Certa are capable shooters from behind the arc, but both can be streaky and when either or both are off, the Irish flat out lack shot makers.
On the other end, defensive rebounding has been a strength, but if opponents are getting quality looks on their first shot, protecting the backboard only goes so far.
For the most part, Shrewsberry's team has continued to play hard despite having only one win in 2026, suffering a couple of heartbreaking defeats at Cal and at home to Virginia last week.
I'd expect the Irish to once again come out fighting in Louisville, but they'll need to shoot it well above their season averages to have a chance of keeping this one close.
Louisville Basketball
The return of Mikel Brown Jr. has gotten Louisville back to looking like the team that was dominating its competition for most of the non-conference portion of the season.
Pat Kelsey's team started off ACC play 2-3, but it's won three of its last four, with the only loss coming at Duke.
The Cardinals have gotten back to sharing the basketball on the offensive end and went for 85+ in wins over Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech and SMU.
Ryan Conwell is one of the more prolific 3-point shooters in all of college basketball, and Isaac McKneely is a veteran wing who's made winning plays in a lot of big games throughout his career.
Those two guys — alongside Brown — give Louisville one of the best backcourts in the conference and is why many in Card Nation felt this team could be capable of a deep NCAA Tournament run at the beginning of the season.
Louisville has struggled defensively at times, but there have been some signs of improvement in recent games.
Kelsey's team gets up in passing lanes and is forcing turnovers at a higher clip, while also forcing opponents into some more difficult shot attempts.
For this team to continue to improve as we get closer to March, there needs to be continued urgency to guard for long stretches, as well as a commitment to all five players going to the glass to rebound.
I don't see the Notre Dame defense being able to provide much resistance to the Louisville offensive attack, so a lot of that matchup will come down to whether or not the Cardinals can knock down some open looks.
Notre Dame will also likely try to slow the pace of this game down, so it'll be important for the Cards to look to run when they have opportunities.
Notre Dame vs. Louisville Betting Analysis
Ultimately, I think this is too many points when you consider the fact that Shrewsberry has kept this locker room together and the Irish keep playing hard.
Despite a 1-7 stretch over the last eight games, Notre Dame has only lost by more than 14 points once all season.
That loss was by 22 at North Carolina in a game the Tar Heels came out hot and punched Notre Dame in the mouth early and often. The Irish have played a good chunk of other top-20 opponents and have stayed within 15 against the rest of the bunch.
Louisville has plenty of weapons and can get hot from deep in its own building, but I don't believe the Cardinals are sound enough defensively to really blow this one open.
Give me Notre Dame to cover a big number and keep this one interesting.
My Pick: Notre Dame +17.5 (Play to +16)
