The Oregon Ducks take on the Michigan State Spartans in the Big Ten Tournament. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Michigan State is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -280. The total is set at 141.5 points.
Here’s my Oregon vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for March 14, 2025.
Oregon vs Michigan State Prediction
My Pick: Michigan State -5 (Play to -6)
My Oregon vs Michigan State best bet is on the Spartans spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Oregon vs Michigan State Odds, Spread, Pick
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
- Oregon vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -6
- Oregon vs Michigan State over/under: 141.5 points
- Oregon vs Michigan State moneyline: Michigan State -280, Oregon +230
- Oregon vs Michigan State best bet: Michigan State -5 (Play to -6)
My Oregon vs Michigan State Big Ten Tournament Betting Preview
The Oregon Ducks picked up a nice “neutral” win in enemy territory to start the Big Ten Tournament, beating Indiana in Indianapolis. That marks the eighth straight victory for Oregon.
Meanwhile, Michigan State is on a seven-game winning streak of its own, meaning both teams have been scalding hot at the perfect time.
The Spartans have survived this stretch despite struggling offensively. They sit at 28th in KenPom’s offensive rankings for the year, but they've slipped to 57th in Bart Torvik’s offensive efficiency since February 1.
That’s a month-long sample of Michigan State struggling.
You’d expect it to be the shooting that's plagued the Spartans. However, Michigan State is shooting better than it has all year (over 32%). Its actually the 2-point percentage that's plummeted to 50% (217th nationally).
I knocked Michigan State regularly early in the season for not having a true go-to scoring option. It turns out, Michigan State always had a guy — he was just coming off the bench. Jase Richardson has been one of the top players in the Big Ten for a month, scoring 11+ points in nine straight games.
Richardson adds a different element to the Spartans' offense. For one, it relieves pressure off of guys like Jaden Akins and Tre Holloman. Plus, Richardson is a true three-level scorer. He erupted for 29 versus Oregon in their prior meeting, attacking both the rim and from deep.
Michigan State’s strength is on the defensive end. The Spartans rank fifth in KenPom’s defensive efficiency, with their biggest strength being limiting teams to just 28% from downtown. They can get exposed at the rim a bit, which is likely a byproduct of not having a true rim protector.
The Spartans often dictate the game’s pace due their elite rebounding ability, though.
Also, Michigan State can make up for poor shooting by grabbing 35% of its offensive boards. That’s possibly the biggest edge in this contest, as Oregon ranks just 153rd in defensive rebounding rate. I’d expect that to lead to some second-chance opportunities for the Spartans.
The Ducks have a pair of consistent go-to studs in guard Jackson Shelstad, who's a bit hit or miss, and Nate Bittle, a 7-footer with shooting ability.
I don’t see how Oregon scores enough in this matchup, though. The Ducks are just 45th in offensive efficiency (per Torvik) during their winning streak. Meanwhile, Oregon ranks 15th in defensive efficiency during the same span.
Offensively, Oregon has found its shooting stroke, connecting on 37% of its shots during the hot streak. A lot of the shooting success correlates with Bittle’s dominance, but the Ducks can also have an off shooting day if Shelstad goes cold.
I just don’t think a team can beat Michigan State at its own game, particularly if that team isn’t as good at that same game.
The Spartans were just 4.5-point favorites at open, which feels light. I’ll gladly take Tom Izzo’s squad up to six points in what promises to be an outstanding battle.
