The Oregon Ducks take on the San Diego State Aztecs in Las Vegas, NV, as part of the Players Era Festival. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on MAX.
Oregon is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -165. The total is set at 138.5 points.
Here’s my Oregon vs. San Diego State predictions and college basketball picks for November 27, 2024.
Oregon vs San Diego State Prediction
My Pick: San Diego State +2.5
My Oregon vs San Diego State best bet is on the Aztecs spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Oregon vs San Diego State Odds, Spread
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
- Oregon vs San Diego State spread: Oregon -3.5
- Oregon vs San Diego State over/under: 138.5 points
- Oregon vs San Diego State moneyline: Oregon -165, San Diego State +140
- Oregon vs San Diego State best bet: San Diego State +2.5
My Oregon vs San Diego State NCAAB Betting Preview
Oregon is pretty fortunate to be 6-0 entering this contest. The Ducks trailed by double digits in the second half with 10 minutes or fewer in three of their past four games — against Oregon State, Portland and Texas A&M.
Perhaps they just have a knack for fighting back, or the Ducks have been lucky.
I thought Jackson Shelstad had legitimate All-American potential, but he's endured a sophomore slump. A preseason All-Big Ten selection, Shelstad averages just 8.8 points per game — down from 12.8 — and is shooting just 34% from the field and 26% from 3.
Shelstad is a ball-dominant guard and has to score more efficiently for the Ducks to be a top-25 caliber team.
Oregon isn't elite at anything, but that's not a bad thing. It's because the Ducks aren't really "bad" at anything besides shooting. They rank 27th in offensive efficiency and 36th in defensive efficiency but shoot just 31% from 3.
Most of Oregon's shooting problems stem from Shelstad, TJ Bamba and Nate Bittle, who each hit below 26% from downtown.
Moreover, I don't think Oregon did anything spectacularly defensively to spark the comeback on Tuesday. I'd put Texas A&M's late-game scoring woes in the bucket of Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps playing hero ball rather than Oregon doing anything special defensively.
The Aggies' guard duo shot 4-for-15 from the field and 6-of-19 from 3.
The Aztecs' guards won't force the issue like the Aggies' guards, which is a pretty key note here.
San Diego State pulled out an impressive win as 4.5-point underdogs in the first round of the Players Era Festival.
We know San Diego State can defend; that's nothing new under Brian Dutcher.
They rank fifth nationally in defensive efficiency, and the Aztecs are elite at stopping opponents from scoring inside. They boast the top block rate in the country while holding teams to 42% from 2.
One of the keys for San Diego State is having two dynamic defensive bigs. The lengthy 7-footer Magoon Gwath and Jared Coleman-Jones often hold opponents from scoring inside.
I can't say I was optimistic about San Diego State's offense turning a corner, but scoring 1.09 PPP against Creighton isn't too shabby.
The combination of Nick Boyd, Miles Byrd and the emerging BJ Davis has made a seismic difference for the Aztecs. When San Diego State lost to Gonzaga, Boyd was the only one carrying the load. Now, Byrd is healthy again, and Davis dropped 18 points in the win over Creighton.
Is the Aztecs' sudden strong offensive performance a one-off showing, or did the they find something that works? It might be a bit of both. I don't foresee the Aztecs being a great offensive squad, but their efficiency should improve.
Also, San Diego State runs a deep rotation. Dutcher played nine players 13+ minutes in the Creighton game, and there isn't much dead weight on the bench.
Super-sub Wayne McKinney III pours in 10 point in just 24 minutes per game, while the freshman duo of Taj DeGourville and Pharaoh Compton continues to improve.
Oregon vs San Diego State Betting Analysis
I'm going with San Diego State here. I know what to expect from Dutcher's team, while my brain still ponders whether Oregon is good or just benefitted from teams playing poorly late.
Also, in a back-to-back games, you have to consider how much energy the teams used in the prior game.
Oregon put all its effort into coming back to win its game, while San Diego State could conserve energy because it led Creighton by double digits for the entire second half.
I'll roll with SDSU here.
