The Pittsburgh Panthers take on the Duke Blue Devils in Durham, NC. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1400. The total is set at 143 points.
Here are my Pittsburgh vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for January 7, 2025.
Pitt vs Duke Odds
| Pittsburgh Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 143 -110 / -110 | +850 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 143 -110 / -110 | -1400 |
- Pitt vs Duke spread: Duke -14.5
- Pitt vs Duke over/under: 143 points
- Pitt vs Duke moneyline: Duke -1400, Pitt +850
- Pitt vs Duke best bet: Pittsburgh +14 (Play to +12.5)
My Pittsburgh vs Duke best bet is on the Panthers spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Pitt vs Duke College Basketball Betting Preview
The Panthers are no stranger to walking into the unkind Cameron Indoor and stealing a win. It happened last year, only a few weeks from the day.
This year is a totally different story, though, as Duke is arguably the best team in the country. Last season, it clocked in as a five seed.
Offensively, Pittsburgh relies a lot on its pick-and-roll play with its stellar guards, Jaland Lowe and Ish Leggett. While Lowe has shined in his sophomore campaign (17.4 points, 6.8 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game), he's encountered some difficulties scoring efficiently, shooting 38% from the field and 28% from 3.
Watching Pittsburgh's guards try to operate against one of the top defenses in America is a true strength versus strength battle.
The inconsistent shooting from Lowe and Leggett is worrisome in this matchup. Duke's toughness and ability to force teams into difficult shots at the rim will likely leave Pitt to launch perimeter jumpers.
The good news is that Lowe and Leggett still manage to score over 35 combined points per game without being great shooters. If Lowe and Leggett shoot it well, that would help the Panthers' cause, as Zack Austin and Brandin Cummings both hit over 40% from 3.
On the defensive end, Pittsburgh sits at No. 42 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Panthers tend to have success defending jumpers, ranking in the 82nd percentile against spot-up shots (per Synergy), but the lack of a true rim-protector shows in their well below-average numbers against post players.
I bet Jeff Capel can sleep well at night if Duke beats Pitt in the post because the emphasis is on limiting Duke's shooters.
Duke hasn't faced a gauntlet so far in the ACC, but let's keep it real: There's no gauntlet to face in this league.
The most impressive part of Duke's attack is that it can dominate on offense and defense — it's not a one-trick pony. The Blue Devils notched 1.28 PPP or more in all three ACC games, while holding teams to 1.02 PPP or fewer.
Still, the difference in facing Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and SMU to facing Pittsburgh is a pretty big leap.
I'm a huge believer in Duke's defense. Opposing teams have to shoot it well from 3 to even have a chance at beating the Blue Devils, as it holds opponents to a minuscule 40% on 2s. Attempting to score on a pair of shot-swatting youngsters — Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach — is a difficult task, and the numbers back it up.
The Blue Devils' offense probably doesn't jump off the page, since Flagg is the only player average over 15 points a night. Still, Duke ranks ninth in offensive efficiency and shoots a ton of 3s.
Helping Flagg is Tyrese Proctor, Isaiah Evans and Kon Knueppel, who all hit above 34% from downtown.
Duke can win even if Flagg struggles, which can happen for a freshman. But the Blue Devils still have the upper hand in those games due to defense.
We haven't seen Flagg struggle in an ACC game yet, so we'll see if Pittsburgh can find the right formula to contain the future No. 1 overall NBA selection.
I praised Duke in this piece, but this line is too large.
Pittsburgh is good enough to stay within 13.5 points here. If the line were sitting at 12 — like KenPom suggests — I'd lean towards Duke, but with the line trending in the opposite direction, I have to take the 'dog.
The path to a cover is Pittsburgh getting enough scoring from its guards and Duke having an off shooting night, which is very possible given how many shots Duke takes from 3-point land.
Pick: Pitt +14 (Play to +12.5)
