The Purdue Boilermakers play the Michigan Wolverines in the Big Ten Championship. Tip-off is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Michigan is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -260. Meanwhile, Purdue is the underdog at +5.5 with a moneyline of +210. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here’s my Purdue vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for March 15, 2026.
Purdue vs Michigan Prediction
My Pick: Purdue ML +220
My Purdue vs Michigan best bet is on the Boilermakers to win outright. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Purdue vs. Michigan Odds & Pick
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
My Pick: Purdue ML +220
My Purdue vs Michigan best bet is on the Boilermakers to win outright. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Purdue vs Michigan Expert Prediction
Michigan has won close games on back-to-back days. The Wolverines completed a three-game season sweep of Ohio State in the quarterfinals, in a tight 71-67 win.
In the semis, Yaxel Lendeborg drilled a game-winning 3-pointer with under a second remaining. Michigan is shooting a poor 13-of-42 (31%) from 3-point land combined in these two games in Chicago.
Purdue entered this tournament as the No. 7 seed, even though it's been a top-10 team on KenPom the entire season. The Boilermakers took care of Northwestern on day one, 81-68, and held off Nebraska, 74-58, in the quarterfinals. A UCLA team down Tyler Bilodeau and Donovan Dent put up a tremendous fight, but Purdue was able to win 73-66.
A couple of interesting trends have shown up this week in Chicago: Michigan’s offense has struggled against two defenses outside the top-50 nationally on the season.
One could argue this Michigan group struggles with focus sometimes for lower-stakes games, considering this group is essentially locked in to a No. 1 seed in the ideal Midwest Region.
However, my attention is directed at the impact of the loss of L.J. Cason to a season-ending injury a couple of weeks ago. Sure, Michigan is undefeated since he went down, but it hasn't scored over 71 points in three of those four contests. This comes after scoring 74 or more in every game this season before that, outside of the loss to Duke.
Michigan remains an elite defensive unit, of course, the best in the entire country. My concerns lie in its occasionally underwhelming offense, which needs to get out in transition or dominate the offensive glass to look its best. Without Cason, that’s one less capable 3-point shooter and pace pusher.
Purdue, on the other end, has played its best defense of the season as of late. Opponents are averaging 64 points per game in this tournament so far. This group is the second most efficient offense on the season, and while points totals have been lower late, it's still been quite efficient.
Braden Smith is averaging just five points a game in the Big Ten Tournament, but that’s overshadowed by a ridiculous 35 assists in those three games.
When these teams squared off at Mackey Arena nearly a month ago, Michigan took control in the first half and never let off the gas. The Wolverines outrebounded the Boilers by eight, and shot a ridiculous 57% from 3 compared to 31% for Purdue.
Considering Michigan has played with fire and ended up in close games lately, and the way Purdue seems to have turned a corner defensively, I’m rolling with Matt Painter’s group here.
I believe in Oscar Cluff and Trey Kaufman-Renn’s ability to perform better on the glass, and I don’t expect the kind of hot shooting from Michigan that led it to the win last time.
My Pick: Purdue ML +230
