The Saint Mary's Gaels take on the Boise State Broncos in Boise, ID. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on Mountain West Network.
Saint Mary's is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a 138-point over/under.
Here are my Saint Mary's vs. Boise State predictions and college basketball picks for December 14, 2024.
Saint Mary's vs Boise State Prediction
My Pick: LEAN: Saint Mary's ATS and Under
My Saint Mary's vs Boise State best bet would be on Saint Mary's spread and the under, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Saint Mary's vs Boise State Odds, Lines, Pick
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 138 -110o / -110u | -148 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 138 -110o / -110u | +124 |
- Saint Mary's vs Boise State spread: Saint Mary's -2.5
- Saint Mary's vs Boise State over/under: 138 points
- Saint Mary's vs Boise State moneyline: Saint Mary's -148, Boise State +124
- Saint Mary's vs Boise State best bet: LEAN: Saint Mary's ATS and Under
My Saint Mary's vs Boise State College Basketball Betting Preview
Boise State is a reasonably simple squad to figure out. The Broncos primarily score by leveraging positional size advantages to post-up from everywhere on the court while weak-side cutting if the post gets doubled.
Tyson Degenhart leads the charge (18 PPG, and he’s also a lights-out 3-point shooter), but Javan Buchanan (12 PPG) and O’Mar Stanley (9 PPG) also get in on the action.
What Boise refuses to do is create off-the-bounce, and that’s a problem against Saint Mary’s, given Randy Bennett’s drop-coverage defense forces opponents into middle-of-the-floor dribble creation.
I’m reasonably confident the Gaels' defense will hold firm in the post, as they rank above the D-I average in post-denial and post-up defensive efficiency. The Gaels have size at all five spots on the floor, which is imperative for stopping Boise’s offense.
Of greater importance, the Gaels' drop-coverage is phenomenal at the rim and in the paint. Given that Boise is a rim-reliant offense, I don’t like the Broncos' odds of posting a crooked number on Saturday.
However, Saint Mary’s also lives at the rim, mainly through ball-screen rolls into post-up sets and then crashing the offensive glass for second-chance buckets (ranking fourth nationally in offensive rebounding rate).
Boise can’t stop anyone off the bounce (.91 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed, ninth percentile). Still, the Broncos are big, athletic, versatile, rock-solid in their rim denial (15 at-the-rim field goal attempts per game, 77th percentile), and even better at cleaning the glass (ranking 25th nationally in defensive rebounding rate).
Therefore, I think this will be a lower-scoring affair — like the 63-60 head-to-head grinder the Broncos hosted last year (after the total closed 130).
However, I just can’t get to this over/under mark, which I think is a few points too low.
Additionally, I think the spread is a tad low, especially when our Action PRO Model projects Saint Mary’s as a four-point road favorite.
On the whole, this is a better matchup for Saint Mary’s.
Saint Mary’s will deny the post and force Boise into uncomfortable dribble penetration. At the same time, the Broncos will invite the Gaels’ ball-screen creation — keep your eyes on Augustas Marciulionis and Jordan Ross on Saturday, as they will likely be the key to which side covers the short spread.
However, the situational spot screams Boise State, which is coming off a tough loss to Washington State. At the same time, Saint Mary’s is due for a letdown after back-to-back wins, including a gross overtime victory over UTSA.
I’m passing on this game altogether, but I would recommend any bettor looking for action to back Saint Mary’s on the spread and the under on the total.
