The San Diego State Aztecs take on the Creighton Bluejays in Las Vegas, NV, as part of the Players Era Festival. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on TBS.
The Bluejays are favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -180. The total is set at 138 points.
Here’s my San Diego State vs. Creighton predictions and college basketball picks for November 26, 2024.
San Diego State vs Creighton Prediction
My Pick: Creighton 1H -2.5
My San Diego State vs Creighton best bet is on the Bluejays first-half spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
San Diego State vs Creighton Odds, Lines, Pick
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 139 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Creighton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 139 -110o / -110u | -200 |
- San Diego State vs Creighton spread: Creighton -4.5
- San Diego State vs Creighton over/under: 139 points
- San Diego State vs Creighton moneyline: Creighton -200, San Diego State +165
- San Diego State vs Creighton best bet: Creighton 1H -2.5
My San Diego State vs Creighton NCAAB Betting Preview
In the transfer portal era, rosters can completely turn over in an offseason. For some programs, change is the status quo, with coaches ready to re-build at a moment's notice.
That has not been the case for Brian Dutcher at San Diego State. His last two teams reached the national title game and Sweet 16 (losing to champion UConn in both cases) with rosters of largely homegrown talent.
After last season, the Aztecs' top seven scorers left the program as grads or transfers. The leading scorer coming back to San Diego State was Miles Byrd, at just 4.0 points per game.
Dutcher found some production in the portal, with Wayne McKinney III coming across town from San Diego and Nick Boyd bringing tourney experience from Florida Atlantic. They have both been double-figure scorers early in the season, with Byrd adding 10 points per game as well.
The real difference maker has been the emergence of sophomore BJ Davis, who scored just 14 points last season, including 1-of-11 from long range. He's already matched those attempts (making five of his first 11 this season) and has become a real valuable scorer for the Aztecs.
There are some questions of fit, with Davis, Boyd and McKinney all standing 6-foot-3 or shorter, though the trio has only played 15 possessions together so far.
If that is going to be an issue, it hasn't quite manifested this season. San Diego State has been a top-25 defense, a feat that Dutcher's teams have accomplished in each of the five prior seasons.
Creighton Basketball
Steven Ashworth is doubtful vs. San Diego State.
San Diego State saw tons of production leave the program last spring. Meanwhile, Creighton had one of the most significant returnees in the nation choose another year in Omaha, with three-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner electing to play a fifth season as a Bluejay.
He posted 17 points, eight rebounds and three blocks per game last season and already looks poised to expand those numbers this season. In Creighton's opener, Kalkbrenner finished with 49 points on 22 field goal attempts, with 11 rebounds as well.
That was his ceiling against the low level of competition offered by UT Rio Grande Valley. His floor came in the Jays' last game, where Nebraska swarmed the 7-footer at every chance, allowing him just one shot from the field in 39 minutes of play, with that shot coming from outside the arc.
Anytime Kalkbrenner posted or got the ball near the paint, the Huskers flocked to him and it paid off. Kalkbrenner scored just four points from the foul line and Creighton became a jump-shooting team, hoisting 42 (!) shots from deep.
With just 12 of those 3s going down, the Jays' offense sputtered.
Other coaches may try that method, but it has the chance to bite back. Steven Ashworth, Mason Miller and Isaac Traudt are all returning Bluejays who made better than 40% from long range last season.
Pop Isaacs transferred from Texas Tech and is more of a scorer than a pure shooter, though I wouldn't look to give open shots to a player with 130 made 3s in his career in the Big 12.
This give-and-take has become routine for Greg McDermott's teams at Creighton. Last season, they were top-10 in 3-point rate while allowing the highest percentage of opponents' points coming on 2-point baskets. He's making an educated bet that Creighton's 3s can beat your mid-range 2s.
Sometimes, that bet goes bust, but more often than not, it's a sound strategy.
San Diego State vs Creighton Betting Analysis
Creighton's last performance was a dud, putting it in a prime spot to bounce back into a big spot at the Players Era Festival. Kalkbrenner is not going to be held that quiet in back-to-back games, no matter what Dutcher can gain from watching the film.
The Bluejays are due for a shooting avalanche, taking more than half of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc but having yet to hit better than the national average 3-point percentage in any of their five games so far this season.
I think that not only ends but does so quickly.
I like Creighton to win and cover, but my favorite bet is for the Bluejays to start fast and cover the first-half spread.
