The San Diego State Aztecs take on the New Mexico Lobos in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on CBS.
New Mexico is favored by 2.5 points on the spread. The total is set at 147.5 points.
Here’s my San Diego State vs. New Mexico prediction and college basketball picks for February 28, 2026.
San Diego State vs New Mexico Prediction
My Pick: San Diego State +2.5
My San Diego State vs New Mexico best bet is on the Aztecs to cover. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
San Diego State vs. New Mexico Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 147.5 -115o / -105u | |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 147.5 -115o / -105u | |
- San Diego State vs New Mexico spread: New Mexico -2.5
- San Diego State vs New Mexico over/under: 147.5
San Diego State vs New Mexico College Basketball Betting Preview
A huge Mountain West tilt tips off on Saturday in Albuquerque as the San Diego State Aztecs visit the New Mexico Lobos.
With a win, San Diego State will have a stranglehold on the MWC standings and a sweep over New Mexico.
A Lobo victory keeps them in the race for an unlikely title with Utah State to finish the year.
New Mexico hasn’t been quite as crisp down the stretch, covering just three of its past 10 games. But The Pit has a way of juicing the Lobos.
San Diego State won the first matchup in this series by four points back in January, but it led by as many as 15. The Aztecs' defense controlled the interior, as the Lobos needed 12 triples to mount a comeback and make the final score close. Aztec stud Myles Byrd had a mega game, scoring 21 points and grabbing eight boards.
Defense will lead the way again for San Diego State, as it has the entire season. The Aztecs rank top 20 nationally in KenPom's defensive efficiency ratings and are tops in the Mountain West. Their length and physicality on the perimeter have led to them leading the conference in turnover rate, and though New Mexico is the MWC’s best ball-handling squad, San Diego State forced 17 turnovers in the first head-to-head meeting.
The Aztecs are even tougher defending the rim, and with Magoon Gwath seemingly all the way back in the fold, New Mexico will find scoring inside a daunting chore.
San Diego State's offense ranks just inside the KenPom top 100 and has a tendency to stagnate – especially in the halfcourt. The Aztecs rely on transition to kickstart their attack and should find success against an average Lobo transition defense.
In the halfcourt, Brian Dutcher’s squad relies on playmaking from guards Reese Dixon-Waters, BJ Davis, and Byrd – and getting surprisingly impactful freshman Elzie Harrington back from injury should be a nice boost on this end. Harrington’s shooting ability will be key against a Lobo defense that tends to pack the paint and force opponents to beat them over the top.
New Mexico is the fastest team in the MWC and generally practices high-quality shot selection, getting most of its looks from the rim or from 3. The Lobos rank in the top 20 nationally in field-goal attempt rate at the rim, though they found it challenging to score among the San Diego State trees in Game 1.
Like San Diego State, New Mexico relies heavily on transition offense to score. Unfortunately for the Lobos, SDSU ranks first nationally in transition defense on a points-per-possession basis, per Synergy. And New Mexico's pick-n-roll attack is liable to get blown up by the Aztecs' perimeter length, speed, and athleticism.
New Mexico will rely on phenomenal forward Tomislav Buljan to get buckets on this end. Despite San Diego State's impressive overall defense, Buljan was a problem in the first meeting, scoring 20 points and grabbing 14 rebounds. He’s the best rebounder in the Mountain West and can give any front line fits.
The Lobos will also need a repeat of their hot shooting from the first meeting. They’re the league’s best outside shooting team, and perimeter shooting is the primary way to beat San Diego State's defense.
San Diego State vs. New Mexico Betting Analysis
The Pit ranks among the top-10 home-court advantages in the country per KenPom, meaning San Diego State will be hard-pressed to pull out a crucial victory tonight.
But New Mexico hasn’t been invincible at home this season, losing outright to Boise State and Utah State and going just 7-7 against the spread.
San Diego State's defense should be able to propel it to either a victory or a one-score loss.
My Pick: San Diego State +2.5
