The SMU Mustangs take on the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville, TN. Tip-off is set for 9:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Vanderbilt is favored by -11 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. The total is set at 167.5 points.
Here’s my SMU vs. Vanderbilt predictions and college basketball picks for December 3, 2025.
SMU vs Vanderbilt Prediction
My Pick: Vanderbilt -9.5
My SMU vs Vanderbilt best bet is on the Commodores to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
SMU vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 167.5 -110 / -110 | +450 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 167.5 -110 / -110 | -600 |
- SMU vs Vanderbilt spread: Vanderbilt -11
- SMU vs Vanderbilt over/under: 167.5 points
- SMU vs Vanderbilt moneyline: SMU +450, Vanderbilt -600
SMU vs Vanderbilt NCAAB Betting Preview
SMU Basketball
SMU is off to an 8-0 start in year two of the Andy Enfield era.
The Mustangs' only two non-conference losses last season came at Butler and at home to Mississippi State. This season, in the return legs of those home-and-homes, the Mustangs got revenge on both; an 87-85 win over Butler two weeks ago and an 87–81 overtime victory over Mississippi State on Friday.
Enfield’s group has been really balanced so far, grading out 49th offensively and 51st defensively on KenPom, and it's playing with pace too, sitting 50th nationally in tempo.
The starting five is fantastic, but the depth just isn’t there. SMU gets only 19% of its minutes from the bench, the third-lowest mark in the country.
The Mustangs are led by a trio of experienced fifth-year guards, and Boopie Miller has been ridiculous (21.3 PPG, 7.3 APG). Jaron Pierre Jr. is right there with him, adding 18.4 points a night.
Vanderbilt Basketball
Just like SMU, Vanderbilt is off to an 8-0 start in its head coach’s second season.
Mark Byington’s group started getting some well-earned attention after its Feast Week run at the Battle 4 Atlantis. The Commodores backed it up with three wins in three days, capped by a 96-71 dismantling of Saint Mary’s — revenge for the first-round March Madness loss eight months ago.
Vandy’s offense has been electric. The Dores are fourth in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency, seventh in effective field goal percentage and 14th nationally in turnover rate. They’re hitting 40.2% from 3 and are playing at the 39th-fastest tempo.
Defensively, the jump has been just as real. The Dores are up to 25th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency and sit top-23 nationally in both block rate and steal rate.
The additions of AK Okereke and Jalen Washington in the frontcourt have completely changed their presence on the glass — they’re 21st in defensive rebounding percentage after ranking 178th a season ago.
And the backcourt of Frankie Collins, Duke Miles and Tyler Tanner has been wreaking havoc on opposing guards. All three rank in the top five in the SEC in steal rate.
SMU vs. Vanderbilt Betting Analysis
Vanderbilt is a team I’ve been looking to back as much as possible. Laying 9.5 might look a little rich, but there are a few reasons I think the Dores can comfortably create separation here.
First is the depth gap. SMU gets almost nothing from its bench — Miller, Pierre, B.J. Edwards and Corey Washington basically never leave the floor. Byington, on the other hand, can keep his rotation fresh, going nine deep.
I also mentioned how good Vanderbilt’s guards have been, especially defensively. I really think they can make life difficult for SMU’s backcourt, forcing turnovers and tougher looks all night.
And then there’s the shot profile. Vanderbilt takes 45% of its attempts from deep compared to just 32% for SMU. Even if the Mustangs find a rhythm offensively and score 80 or so points, it might not be enough to cover against this Vandy group that's in such a rhythm right now.
I like the Dores to get this done at home by double digits.
My Pick: Vanderbilt -9.5
