The South Dakota State Jackrabbits take on the Colorado Buffaloes in Boulder, CO. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Colorado is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -450. The total is set at 145 points.
Here’s my South Dakota State vs. Colorado predictions and college basketball picks for December 13, 2024.
South Dakota State vs Colorado Prediction
My Pick: Colorado -8.5 (Play to -10)
My South Dakota State vs Colorado best bet is on the Buffaloes spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
South Dakota State vs Colorado Odds, Lines, Pick
| South Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 145 -110 / -110 | +350 |
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 145 -110 / -110 | -450 |
- South Dakota State vs Colorado spread: Colorado -9.5
- South Dakota State vs Colorado over/under: 145 points
- South Dakota State vs Colorado moneyline: Colorado -450, South Dakota State +350
- South Dakota State vs Colorado best bet: Colorado -8.5 (Play to -10)
My South Dakota State vs Colorado College Basketball Betting Preview
South Dakota State Basketball
I feel relatively foolish for doubting the mastermind that is South Dakota State head coach Eric Henderson.
Well, technically, I'm doing it again in this game, but I didn't think the Jackrabbits could overcome losing Zeke Mayo and William Kyle III in the portal. Clearly that take aged like milk since South Dakota State sits as KenPom's 118th-ranked team, putting it 16 spots above St. Thomas in the Summit League.
Oscar Cluff has proven to be one of the best portal adds in the country. Cluff is the Jackrabbits' offensive catalyst, as he leads the team with 17 points, 11 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.
However, Nevada was the only team on South Dakota State's schedule — before Colorado — with the size to neutralize Cluff, and he scored six points on 3-of-3 shooting.
Not only is Cluff dominating the scoring column, he's scoring efficiently. The 6-foot-11 center is shooting a dazzling 73% from the field and 80% from the foul line. Even if teams settle for fouling Cluff, it's a losing proposition with his terrific free throw shooting ability.
Shooting is the main culprit for South Dakota State's offense, as the Jackrabbits sit just 138th in offensive efficiency. Traditionally, 138th is pretty good for a Summit League team, but the Jackrabbits have different standards. South Dakota State shoots just 31% from 3, with 41% of its perimeter jumpers coming from downtown.
Kalen Garry, Joe Sayler and Owen Larson can all shoot, but none are doing so efficiently. The most effective of the group is Sayler at 35%, while Garry and Larson hover around 30%.
For a team with a non-shooting big in Cluff who sets up the offense, the shooters improving would help open up stuff for the star big.
Colorado Basketball
The Buffaloes made easy work of their in-state rivals — Colorado State — last Saturday and had the last six days off before this matchup.
That win showed how good Colorado's defense can be, limiting the Rams to 0.77 PPP.
While Tad Boyle has had more talented teams, he may not have a squad that plays with more effort and has more length.
Effort is somewhat subjective, but height isn't. Colorado is the 10th-tallest team in America, per KenPom. Seven of Colorado's 11 rotation players are 6-foot-7 or taller, and none are shorter than 6-foot-3.
The Buffaloes' offense is very well-balanced. They are very selective when shooting 3s (37% of shots come from 3), but they connect on 39% of those shots.
Sophomore guard RJ Smith has been a steadying force from beyond the arc, shooting a tremendous 45% from 3.
Colorado's offense runs through veteran point guard Julian Hammond III, who averages 12.3 points, three assists and a team-high 1.1 steals per game.
Boyle made sneaky portal moves. The Buffaloes feature a trio of newcomers — Andrej Jakimovski, Elijah Malone and Trevor Baskin — who are integral pieces.
Malone is the name to watch in this matchup, as his 6-foot-10 268-pound frame matches up well with Cluff.
South Dakota State stands no chance if Malone is able to get Cluff in foul trouble. That puts a wrench in everything the Jacks want to do on both ends, so Cluff needs to be careful.
I could see Coach Henderson trying to keep Cluff fresh by giving freshman Damon Wilkinson more run.
The biggest concern for Colorado is turnovers, as it gives the ball away on 21% of its offensive possessions. Winning games when nearly a quarter of possessions result in a turnover is fairly difficult, but South Dakota State forces turnovers on just 14% of possessions.
The lack of defensive pressure from the Jackrabbits is a major plus for Colorado because it will allow the Buffs to operate without worrying about giving the ball away.
South Dakota State vs. Colorado Betting Analysis
I see Colorado and Nevada as similar teams in terms of roster construction, which gives me more confidence in taking the Buffaloes.
Nevada came out determined to exploit South Dakota State's lack of size in the second half. That worked, as the Wolf Pack blew the game open.
Perhaps that's a blueprint for Boyle, as he can do similar things with Jakimovski, Baskin and others.
The biggest difference here is Colorado should carve up South Dakota State's defense. The Jackrabbits willingly allow teams to attempts 3s on nearly half their field goal attempts and Colorado is a great shooting team.
Plus, Nevada just shot 80% from 2-point range against this same team. Colorado could similarly dominate the shaky Jackrabbits interior defense.
