The St. John's Red Storm take on the Xavier Musketeers in Cincinnati, OH. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
St. John's is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 153 points.
Here are my St. John's vs. Xavier predictions and college basketball picks for January 7, 2025.
St. John's vs Xavier Prediction
My Pick: Xavier +1.5 (Play to PK)
My St. John's vs Xavier best bet is on the Musketeers spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
St. John's vs Xavier Odds, Lines
| St. John's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 153 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Xavier Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 153 -110o / -110u | -105 |
- St. John's vs Xavier spread: St. John's -1
- St. John's vs Xavier over/under: 153 points
- St. John's vs Xavier moneyline: St. John's -115, Xavier -105
- St. John's vs Xavier best bet: Xavier +1.5 (Play to PK)
My St. John's vs Xavier NCAAB Betting Preview
Have we hit the bottom of the market on Xavier? The Musketeers have lost six of their past nine, posting a 1-3 Big East record to start the conference season.
To be fair, four of their past five losses have come on the road, including battles with two KenPom top-30 teams, Cincinnati and UConn. Their lone home defeat was a two-point loss to KenPom No. 10 Marquette (after closing as four-point underdogs).
On the contrary, things are going well in Rick Pitino’s world. The Red Storm are 3-1 in conference play, although the wins have come over DePaul, Providence and Butler, while they also dropped a road game to Creighton by one.
While St. John’s is a borderline elite team, the Red Storm are due for a loss against a step up in competition. Meanwhile, the Musketeers are battle-tested, and they’re due for a home win after a demanding early-season conference schedule.
In short, the situational spot screams Xavier.
I also don’t mind the matchup.
The key to beating St. John’s is to keep it out of transition and off the boards. Xavier is an elite transition-denial defense (8.4 transition PPG allowed, 15th nationally) and a borderline-elite defensive rebounding team (74% defensive rebounding rate, 29th).
The other end of the court is where things get tricky. Xavier is a pace-and-post offense, running an up-tempo, transition-heavy offense that plays through Zach Freemantle down low.
But the Johnnies are also a rock-solid transition-denial defense (10.5 transition PPG allowed, 91st nationally), and Pitino’s matchup zone effectively denies the post (3.1 post-up possessions per game allowed, 37th).
That said, the Musketeers do an excellent job spacing the floor around Freemantle, with Ryan Conwell, Dayvion McKnight and Marcus Foster all shooting over 39% from 3. The Musketeers rank among the top 20 offenses in ShotQuality’s Spacing and Shot Making metrics, so I don’t think their near-40% 3-point rate is a fluke.
The Johnnies don’t allow many 3s, but any matchup zone defense will be vulnerable against elite spacing and weak-side shooting. St. John’s defense ranks sub-300th nationally in the same Spacing and Shot Making metrics, so I believe opponents can continue canning close to 35% from deep.
All in all, I like the spot and schematic matchup for Xavier.
My one worry is Kadary Richmond’s dribble penetration and mid-range shooting ability against Xavier’s drop-coverage defense, which will allow plenty of opportunities in the middle of the court.
But the Red Storm often are forced to work in the mid-range because they’re not a great shooting team, so they’re over-reliant on low-efficiency 2s in crowded lanes.
As a result, their half-court offense is merely average (.91 PPP, 48th percentile), making Xavier’s elite transition-denial more critical.
For what it’s worth, ShotQualityBets’ model projects the Musketeers as five-point home favorites.
