The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville, Tennessee. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Vanderbilt is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -165. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here’s my Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt predictions and college basketball picks for February 21, 2026.
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread, Pick
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
My Pick: Vanderbilt -3.5
My Tennessee vs Vanderbilt best bet is on the Commodores to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt NCAAB Betting Preview
Tennessee Preview
When Tennessee has the ball, this is where Vanderbilt’s bounce-back case really strengthens.
Tennessee’s offense ranks 32nd nationally in adjusted efficiency, yet there are cracks. The Vols rank outside the top 250 in turnover rate and outside the top 100 in effective field goal rate.
Vanderbilt’s defense isn’t elite overall, although it does two things that matter in this matchup. It ranks inside the top 40 nationally in steal rate and inside the top 40 in block rate.
Tennessee already struggles to protect the ball, and Vanderbilt has the defensive prowess to punish it. Extra possessions at home are often the swing factor in games like this.
There’s also a stylistic advantage in how Vanderbilt scores compared to what Tennessee allows. Tennessee relies heavily on offensive rebounding, ranking first nationally in that category.
That’s usually a big edge. Vanderbilt, however, is more disciplined on defense than the raw numbers show and ranks inside the top 60 in defensive rebounding.
If Vanderbilt can limit second-chance opportunities even a little, Tennessee will have to rely on half-court shots, where it ranks outside the top 120 in both 2-point and 3-point efficiency.
Vanderbilt Preview
Vanderbilt looks like its in a classic bounce-back opportunity at home on Saturday, and the matchup data suggests the Commodores have a good chance to control the game against Tennessee.
When Vanderbilt has the ball, its offense ranks 14th nationally in adjusted efficiency. Tennessee’s defense is elite at 14th as well, but this isn’t a mismatch Tennessee can stand out in.
Vanderbilt has consistently performed well against strong defenses because it's well-balanced and efficient across the board. The Commodores rank 26th nationally in effective field goal rate and 11th in turnover rate offensively.
Tennessee’s defense thrives on disruption, though it sits outside the top 200 in forcing turnovers. That’s a red flag here.
Vanderbilt’s guards should be able to initiate offense cleanly and keep the Vols from generating the easy transition chances they need. Vanderbilt can also pull ahead with its offensive firepower.
The Commodores rank 26th nationally in 2-point percentage and are in the top 70 from 3-point range. Tennessee’s defense lets opponents finish inside at a rate outside the top 70.
Vanderbilt’s balanced offense forces Tennessee to cover the whole floor, which matters because the Vols like to control the tempo and slow down possessions. Vanderbilt plays faster, ranking in the top 50 for average possession length on offense, while Tennessee’s defense ranks outside the top 250.
This means Vanderbilt can speed up the game enough to throw Tennessee off its rhythm.
Personnel and environment lean toward Vanderbilt, too. The Commodores have a far more experienced roster, ranking 16th nationally in experience compared to Tennessee, which sits outside the top 130.
In tight SEC games, older backcourts matter. Vanderbilt also plays a deeper rotation and should benefit from home energy after a recent letdown spot. Teams in this situation often respond with greater defensive urgency and sharper offensive execution.
It’s also important to keep an eye on the injury report, as Vanderbilt should be getting healthier heading into the matchup.
How To Make Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Picks
This game projects closer than the market view suggests. Tennessee has the stronger national profile. Vanderbilt’s offensive efficiency, ball security and defensive activity still line up well against the Vols’ weaknesses.
Add in the home floor and a clear bounce-back motivation, and Vanderbilt has multiple pathways to control tempo.
I'll happily take the Dores at home in a good bounce-back spot, as I trust their offensive efficiency far more than the Vols.
My Pick: Vanderbilt -3.5
