The Tennessee Volunteers play the Virginia Cavaliers in the second round of the NCAA Tournament from Philadelphia, PA. Tip-off is set for 6:10 p.m. ET on TNT.
Tennessee is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -115. Meanwhile, Virginia is the underdog at +1.5 with a moneyline of -105. The total is set at 137.5 points.
Here’s my Tennessee vs. Virginia predictions and college basketball picks for March 22, 2026.
Tennessee vs Virginia March Madness Prediction, Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +102 | 137.5 -108o / -112u | -115 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -122 | 137.5 -108o / -112u | -105 |
My Pick: Virginia +1.5
My Tennessee vs Virginia best bet is on Virginia to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Tennessee vs Virginia Round of 32 Pick & Preview
Tennessee Basketball
The Vols were exceptional on the offensive end of the floor in a convincing first-round victory over the RedHawks, though it's definitely noteworthy that Rick Barnes’ squad was held to under 30 points in the second half.
By far the most bizarre facet of Tennessee’s first-round victory was a goose egg from its freshman phenom, Nate Ament.
The future top-10 NBA draft selection has been the heart and soul of this Volunteers team for the majority of the season, but he suffered an ankle injury down the stretch of the regular season.
He was removed from the game after playing just 19 minutes, which is rather concerning in regard to his health ahead of this duel.
In a matchup versus a very difficult Cavaliers defensive frontcourt, the rest of Barnes’ core will need to step up in a big way, and Ja’Kobi Gillespie will need to carry the load for the Vols. Felix Okpara had an excellent performance without Ament on the floor, as the Nigerian posted 12 points and five rebounds.
Barnes has had a successful coaching career with his defensive schematics, consistently boasting elite defensive units throughout his tenures at both Texas and Tennessee.
For a Tennessee defense that ranks 12th in college basketball in defensive efficiency rating, per KenPom, the injury status of Ament will be a massive storyline ahead of this contest.
Virginia Basketball
Virginia survived a scare in its first-round matchup with Wright State, as Ryan Odom’s bunch had to march all the way back after trailing at the half.
While on the surface, Virginia’s scare versus Wright State looks rather concerning, the Cavaliers turned it on late, finishing the game with 13 triples on 26 attempts from beyond the arc.
The larger concern was mostly on the defensive end of the floor, with Virginia’s perimeter defense folding, as the Raiders converted on 13 triples.
For a Wright State offense largely known for its interior success, it's easy to chalk this one up as a volatile shooting performance, which is plentiful in the month of March.
Perhaps the greatest concern for Virginia was how elite the Vols looked in their decisive victory over Miami (OH), as Tennessee scored over 50 points in the first half thanks to a phenomenal 29-point effort from Gillespie.
If the Cavaliers are to prevail on Sunday and advance to the Sweet 16, they'll need to make significant improvements on the defensive end of the floor.
Virginia’s defense has thrived all season long, ranking 16th in defensive efficiency rating, per KenPom, so I'm optimistic about a bounce-back performance.
Thijs De Ridder was held to just 10 points in the Cavs' first-round matchup, but Jacari White had a phenomenal 26 points off the bench. Malik Thomas was held to 11 points in just 21 minutes, as well.
If the Hoos are to find success in this matchup, their offensive core needs to improve substantially.
Tennessee vs. Virginia Pick, Betting Analysis
Both of the Midwest Region’s top two teams are dealing with injuries, with Michigan’s L.J. Cason — and now Iowa State star forward Joshua Jefferson — likely out for the remainder of the tournament.
In what already shaped up to be a high-stakes matchup, the region seems to have been blown wide open, with several teams, including Virginia and Tennessee, serving as legit contenders to advance to the Final Four.
For a Tennessee offense that heavily relies upon its interior production — largely due to the elite scoring ability of Ament — this should be a very difficult matchup against a Virginia frontcourt that boasts tremendous size with Johann Grunloh and Ogonna Onyenso.
Odom’s bunch has elite rim protection, ranking inside the top-five nationally in 2-point percentage allowed. Given that the Vols’ star freshman is already coping with a high-ankle sprain, one of Tennessee's primary scoring avenues could be severely diminished.
The best way to beat an elite Cavaliers defensive frontcourt is to convert from beyond the 3-point line, which is exactly what Wright State did, despite being a subpar outside shooting team.
Though Barnes usually has rosters that are elite in converting from downtown, that's not the case this season, as Tennessee ranks in the bottom 40 in college basketball in 3-point attempt rate and percentage of points coming from beyond the arc.
I think Tennessee is being over-valued in this spot, given its first half versus Miami (OH), and Odom’s perimeter defense allowing an outlier shooting performance to a mediocre Raiders squad.
I feel good backing Virginia getting 1.5 points, and I'm most concerned about the impact Ament will make at both ends of the floor.
My Pick: Virginia +1.5
