The Texas Longhorns play the NC State Wolfpack in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament on Tuesday, March 17. Tip-off is set for 9:15 p.m. ET on truTV.
NC State is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -115. Meanwhile, Texas is the underdog at +1 with a moneyline of -105. The over/under sits at 157.5 total points.
Here’s my Texas vs. NC State prediction and college basketball picks for Tuesday, March 17.
Texas vs NC State Prediction
My Pick: Over 159 (Play to 162)
My Texas vs NC State best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas vs NC State Odds: Spread & Over/Under
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
Texas vs NC State Betting Preview
Texas Basketball
Texas is back in the NCAA Tournament under first-year head coach Sean Miller, who quickly stabilized the program after the offseason coaching change.
It’s also a bit of déjà vu for Miller: This marks his second straight trip to the First Four, and last season, he reached it from the other sideline while coaching Xavier… against Texas.
The Longhorns’ offensive identity is clear. They thrive on individual shot creation and getting to the free-throw line.
The guard/wing trio of Tramon Mark, Jordan Pope, and Dailyn Swain gives Texas a group of aggressive, confident ball-handlers who can score one-on-one and manufacture points late in possessions.
Ball movement is not the priority — the Longhorns rank 349th nationally in assist rate — because so much of the offense is built around isolations, drives and post touches.
Inside, Matas Vokietaitis is another outlet for offensive production. The powerful big man ranks third nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, forcing opponents to deal with his physicality in the paint and helping Texas live at the stripe.
He consistently fouls out opposing frontlines with his penchant for drawing contact.
Defensively, the Longhorns lean heavily into drop coverage, keeping Vokietaitis anchored near the rim and asking perimeter defenders to funnel drivers into help.
It’s a scheme designed to protect the paint rather than create chaos. As a result, Texas almost never generates turnovers, ranking 346th nationally in turnover rate forced, per KenPom.
It’s a straightforward blueprint: defend the rim, avoid mistakes, and rely on tough shot-makers to carry the offense.
When those creators are clicking, Texas can be tough to beat, but the Longhorns' defense is predictable and leaky.
NC State Basketball
NC State is back in the NCAA Tournament in Year 1 under Will Wade, a turnaround that has largely been powered by one of the most explosive offenses in the field.
When the Wolfpack gets rolling, they can score in bunches — particularly from beyond the arc.
The shooting numbers jump off the page. NC State ranks 10th nationally in 3-point percentage, and the Wolfpack have multiple players capable of catching fire.
Paul McNeil, Darrion Williams, Matt Able, and Tre Holloman all provide perimeter punch, giving the offense real volatility.
If two or three of those shooters get hot on the same night, NC State can blow open games quickly. The flip side to relying on jump shots, though, is that the Wolfpack sometimes struggles to generate easy looks.
The engine behind it all is Quadir Copeland, a long, rangy point guard who controls the attack and creates advantages off the bounce. Copeland’s playmaking is massive for setting everyone else up, and he ranks sixth nationally in assist rate.
Copeland is a risk-taker, but the supporting cast fits in well around him. The complementary pieces know their roles, move the ball, and rarely make mistakes, allowing the offense to hum without unnecessary possessions wasted.
That discipline shows up in the numbers: NC State ranks ninth nationally in turnover rate, taking exceptional care of the ball while letting its shooters do the damage.
Defense is where it gets problematic. NC State struggles to protect the rim consistently, which forces the Wolfpack to pack the paint and play compact. That approach leaves them vulnerable on the perimeter.
Opponents launch 3s at a high rate — NC State ranks 336th nationally in 3-point attempt rate allowed — and they’ve been making them too, with the Wolfpack sitting 287th in 3-point percentage allowed.
When the offense is humming, NC State can outscore almost anyone. The question is whether the defense can hold up well enough for the Wolfpack’s offense to take over.
Texas vs NC State Pick, Betting Analysis
The first meeting between these teams gives a pretty clear blueprint for how this game can play out.
When they met in Maui back in November, it turned into a full-blown shootout: Texas won, 102–97, in a game where both teams exceeded 1.35 points per possession.
The possession battle was relatively even, but Texas built separation by living at the free-throw line, hitting 28-of-33 attempts while leading by as many as 15.
Neither team enters this rematch in great form. NC State dropped seven of its final nine games, while Texas lost five of its last six down the stretch.
But defensive improvement hasn’t exactly been the story for either side, and the matchup still points toward points.
Texas’ offense is a real challenge for NC State’s defensive structure. The Longhorns rely on isolation scoring and physical drives that generate fouls, exactly the type of offense that can stress a Wolfpack defense that already struggles to protect the rim and defend without fouling.
Inside, Vokietaitis has a clear size advantage against Ven-Allen Lubin, which could again lead to easy interior scoring or trips to the line.
There are plenty of intriguing matchups across the floor as well — particularly Swain against Williams as versatile 4-men — and both teams feature multiple players capable of erupting for big scoring nights.
My initial instinct leaned toward NC State on the side, but after a more detailed assessment, the matchup slightly favors Texas.
Rather than fight that angle, the better play is the total. With limited turnovers and plenty of free throws, the ingredients are there for another high-scoring game. Give me the over 159, and play it up to 162.
My Pick: Over 159 (Play to 162)
