The Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the Iowa State Cyclones in Ames, Iowa, on Saturday, Feb. 28. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on CBS.
Iowa State is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -500. Texas Tech, meanwhile, enters as a 9.5 underdog and is +400 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 144.5 total points.
Here are my Texas Tech vs. Iowa State predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, February 28.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State Prediction
My Pick: Texas Tech +9 or Better
My Texas Tech vs Iowa State best bet is on the Red Raiders to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
- Texas Tech vs Iowa State Spread: Texas Tech +9.5, Iowa State -9.5
- Texas Tech vs Iowa State Over/Under: 144.5 Points
- Texas Tech vs Iowa State Moneyline: Texas Tech +400, Iowa State -500
Texas Tech vs Iowa State College Basketball Betting Preview
Texas Tech Basketball
The big story in Lubbock is the loss of All-American JT Toppin. He was the centerpiece of this Red Raider team and was integral to the road victory over top-ranked Arizona that looked like a chance for Tech to slingshot its way into a hot March run.
Instead, he's lost for the rest of the season due to injury, and head coach Grant McCasland and his team are left scrambling to replace the guy who took 31% of Tech's shots when he was on the court.
So much defensive attention and energy was spent trying to corral Toppin, with all of that now shifting to other Red Raiders.
So far, you'd grade Tech without Toppin as an "incomplete" or worse. Toppin was lost near the end of a road loss to a mediocre Arizona State team. The Red Raiders regrouped and won two home games against dreadful Kansas State and bubbly Cincinnati.
It was certainly notable for Texas Tech to drop 100 points in its first full game without Toppin, even if Kansas State's defense is porous and 46% shooting from outside did most of the heavy lifting.
Following that performance with 80 points and a double-figure win over a solid Cincy defense that just earned a win at Kansas was also impressive.
The key contributor has been sophomore Christian Anderson, who was scoring 19 points per game on 13 shots per game with Toppin. Without his running mate, Anderson is up to 26 points per game (in a small sample) on 16 field-goal attempts per night.
On the road, facing a highly ranked team, Anderson will be Iowa State's focus defensively.
Iowa State Basketball
This is an Iowa State team with real April aspirations.
The Cyclones are unbeaten at home, with all four losses coming in Big 12 play in true road games against top-50 KenPom teams. Home wins over Houston and Kansas this month have officially elevated this team to real contender status.
Joshua Jefferson is stuffing stat sheets, posting 16.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.5 steals per game, having played all 28 games while leading the Clones in minutes per game.
He does everything asked of him as part of the Iowa State attack, perfectly complementing TJ Oztelberger's key pieces.
Milan Momcilovic has led Iowa State in scoring this year. Some of that is due to the European's crafty midrange game, with a Dirk Nowitzki-esque fadeaway.
A lot of it is due to Momcilovic riding a four-month shooting heater.
In his first two years on campus, he sank under 40% from downtown at about five attempts per game. This season, he's taking more than seven threes per night and making more than half of them. In 205 attempts this year, Momcilovic has hit 104, good for the best 3-point percentage in the country.
This is fueled by a Cyclone defense that forces turnovers at a top-10 rate in the country and ranks seventh in the nation in defensive efficiency.
Tamin Lipsey nabs more than two steals per game and is always ready to spark a transition opportunity for Iowa State, with Momcilovic ready to fire from anywhere.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State Pick, Betting Analysis
The vibes around this game would lead you to run to bet Iowa State. I'm here to preach some caution.
Yes, Hilton Coliseum has been magical for the Clones, who have won all 15 games at home this season. Against the spread, however, Iowa State is just 8-6-1 in those games, all coming as the favorite.
Now, it returns home from a road trip to BYU and Utah, splitting those games played at altitude, to face a Texas Tech team eager to show it has life after Toppin's injury.
Tech is 4-2 ATS as an underdog this season, with plenty more to prove. With just two games after Toppin's injury, the Red Raiders are a bit of an unscouted mystery box.
I trust McCasland to keep his team churning toward March, keeping this one closer than expected.
My Pick: Texas Tech +9 or Better
