The Toledo Rockets play the Akron Zips in the MAC Championship. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Akron is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -315. Meanwhile, Toledo is the underdog at +7 with a moneyline of +255. The total is set at 159.5 points.
Here’s my Toledo vs. Akron prediction and college basketball picks for March 14, 2026.
Toledo vs Akron Prediction
My Pick: Akron -7
My Toledo vs Akron best bet is on the Zips to cover. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Toledo vs Akron Odds
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 159.5 -110o / -110u | +255 |
| Akron Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 159.5 -110o / -110u | -315 |
- Toledo vs Akron spread: Akron -7
- Toledo vs Akron over/under: 159.5 points
- Toledo vs Akron moneyline: Toledo +255, Akron -315
Toledo vs Akron College Basketball Betting Preview
Miami Ohio garnered all the headlines in the MAC this year after its perfect regular season, but it’s Toledo and Akron who will face off in the Championship tonight in Cleveland.
Akron is in pursuit of its third straight NCAA Tournament appearance and fourth overall under John Groce.
Toledo looks to punch its first ticket to the Dance since 1980. Head coach Tod Kowalczyk has won the MAC regular season five times over his 16-year tenure (including four straight times from 2021 to 2024), but a conference championship has thus far eluded him. How ironic if the four-seeded Rockets could pull it off this year.
To beat Akron, Toledo needs to play its best game. The Zips are the best squad in the MAC (despite Miami’s record) and are dominant on both ends of the floor.
These teams met once this season back in late January. Toledo led by eight at halftime before Akron pulled away and won by 10. The Rockets could not stop the Zips inside and were outrebounded — an 11-for-20 3-point shooting performance couldn’t save Toledo.
Toledo needs to outscore Akron – and that’s an obvious statement, but it’s true because the Rockets cannot stop the Zips on defense.
Toledo ranks in the top 100 nationally in offense and can put points up in a hurry. Transition is the key to their attack, an uptempo style that ranks in the 90th percentile in points per possession (PPP) in the open floor.
In the halfcourt, Toledo plays mostly through the post, where Austin Parks and Sean Craig are both capable weapons. The Rockets aren’t a 3-happy offense, but they do have good shooters led by Sonny Wilson and Leroy Blyden.
Most importantly, Toledo doesn’t turn the ball over – it leads the MAC in turnover rate, which is key against an Akron team that leads the conference in defensive turnover rate.
Akron is the real deal, and this year’s squad is one of the best in school history. Groce has led the Zips to their highest KenPom rank since 2007, and they are a staggering 39-2 against MAC competition over the past two seasons.
“Physicality” is a good word to sum up Akron’s playstyle – and it’s in direct opposition to the more finesse style of Toledo (some would even say “softer”). Akron scored 1.30 PPP in the first game against Toledo, won the turnover battle, and destroyed the Rockets on the offensive glass.
Toledo is the second-worst defensive rebounding team in the MAC, while Akron is the second-best offensive rebounding squad.
Akron also has the best player in the league in point guard Tavari Johnson, and its offense is even better than Toledo’s.
Like the Rockets, the Zips like to run the open floor, but they also shoot a ton of 3s. Akron led the MAC this season in 3-point attempt rate and 3-point shooting, a deadly combination.
In the halfcourt, Johnson forms a deadly pick-and-roll combo with forward Amani Lyles, who can pop and shoot or score on the block.
So, how does Toledo stay close?
The Rockets need to pack the arc, hope the Zips are cold, and box out as their lives depend on it.
Offensively, they’ll need shooting luck and to stay poised against Akron pressure.
Toledo might be able to hang for a half, but it’s truly hard to see it hanging around for a full 40. I expect Akron to pull away in the second half.
My Pick: Akron -7
