The UConn Huskies play the Duke Blue Devils in the Elite 8 of the NCAA Tournament from Washington, D.C. Tip-off is set for 5:05 p.m. ET on CBS.
Duke is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. Meanwhile, UConn is the underdog at +5.5 with a moneyline of +180. The total is set at 134.5 points.
Here’s my UConn vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for March 29, 2026.
UConn vs. Duke 2026 Elite Eight Odds & Expert Pick
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 134.5 -110o / -110u | +188 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 134.5 -110o / -110u | -230 |
My Picks: UConn ML +170 | UConn +5.5
My UConn vs Duke best bet is on the Huskies to win outright and advance to the Final Four. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
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UConn vs Duke Predictions
UConn Basketball
Aside from its mid-season battle with Michigan, Connecticut will be the far toughest challenge for the Blue Devils' offense, as the Huskies rank inside the top10 nationally in defensive efficiency rating, according to KenPom.
In what's been a stellar season for Dan Hurley's bunch, UConn has surprisingly flown under the radar from a title contender stance — as not many people picked the Huskies to cut down the nets in 2026.
Over the course of the season, Connecticut has taken down the likes of Illinois, Kansas, Florida and Texas — while falling to Arizona by just four points.
Like Duke, UConn has also dealt with injuries on its road to this point, as Silas Demary Jr fortunately returned to action for the Huskies’ last two victories and has made a vital impact on the defensive end of the floor.
For a head coach who's rejuvenated a UConn program with a championship pedigree, having cut down the nets twice in the last four years, it would be foolish to rule out the Huskies in this Elite Eight classic.
Duke Basketball
It should come as no surprise in this matchup that Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils are favored to prevail, as the nation’s top team ranks inside the top-seven nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency rating, per KenPom.
Behind the dual-efforts from its freshman superstar Cam Boozer, Duke is unbelievably versatile, capable of scoring from anywhere on the floor.
The Blue Devils have an elite defensive frontcourt, boasting tremendous size behind its two rim-protectors in Boozer and Patrick Ngongba II, whose absence due to a foot injury was really felt in Duke’s first round scare versus Siena.
Scheyer’s bunch blew the doors off TCU in the second round as Ngongba returned to action for the Blue Devils.
The Horned Frogs scored just 58 points in the East Region’s second-round matchup, really emphasizing the sizable impact Duke’s 6-foot-11 forward makes, thanks to his physicality inside the paint.
Ngongba hasn't been the sole injury for the Blue Devils, as point guard Caleb Foster broke his foot earlier in the season. While initially reported as a season-ending injury, Foster returned against the Johnnies in the Sweet 16.
The Blue Devils have college basketball’s second-ranked defensive unit, trailing just Michigan from an efficiency metric perspective.
Scheyer’s defense is allowing its opponents just 63 points of offense this season, despite playing a challenging schedule both in the non-conference and in ACC play. Duke’s defense ranks third nationally in points per game allowed this season.
UConn vs. Duke March Madness Picks
Connecticut’s experience will definitely be the difference in this contest. Duke has played against many talented opponents over the course of the season, but none can match the level of intensity and determination employed by head coach Dan Hurley.
Talent-wise, there's no doubt that Duke matches up very well with just about anyone, but Scheyer still has a very young lineup. And when it comes to prevailing in March, there's no other head coach in the entire country I would rather have than Hurley.
I can see why most are picking the top-seeded Blue Devils to prevail, thus advancing to consecutive Final Fours.
However, I love the Huskies as an underdog in this spot, and I have a ton of faith in Hurley, who's shown time and time again that teamwork, grit and relentless determination are the keys to reigning supreme in March.
I'm holding a futures ticket on UConn to win the East Region at +480, but I'll still be backing the Huskies on both the moneyline and on the spread.
I fully expect Connecticut to pull off the upset and advance to its first Final Four since 2024.
My Pick: UConn ML +170 | UConn +5.5
